“能做空就做空”，30年期美债惨成弃儿，明星机构唯恐避之不及

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the shift in investment strategies among major financial institutions, led by DoubleLine Capital, towards short-term bonds due to concerns over the expanding U.S. federal budget deficit and debt burden, while long-term U.S. Treasury bonds are being avoided due to rising yield risks [1][2][5]. Group 1: Investment Strategies - DoubleLine Capital and other institutions are avoiding long-term U.S. Treasury bonds, opting instead for short-term bonds which present lower interest rate risks and decent yields [1]. - The investment strategy includes "steepening" trades, focusing on bonds in the mid-yield curve rather than long-term bonds [4]. - PIMCO has maintained a cautious stance on 30-year bonds since late last year, favoring bonds in the 5 to 10-year range [11][12]. Group 2: Market Trends - The 30-year U.S. Treasury bond has shown particularly weak performance this year, with yields rising while shorter-term bonds (2-year, 5-year, and 10-year) have seen declining yields [2]. - The yield on the 30-year bond reached 5.15%, close to its highest point since 2007, with a yield spread between the 30-year and 5-year bonds exceeding 1 percentage point for the first time since 2021 [9]. - Recent auction results indicate a preference for shorter-term bonds, with 2-year, 5-year, and 7-year bonds performing well, while the 30-year bond auction slightly underperformed expectations [13]. Group 3: Government Debt Issuance - Discussions about potentially reducing or pausing the issuance of 30-year bonds have emerged, which is unusual given the Treasury's efforts to maintain a stable debt issuance plan [5][6]. - The U.S. Treasury has committed to maintaining its auction scale, including long-term bonds, despite market pressures [7]. - The upcoming auction of 30-year bonds on June 12 is viewed as a critical test for market demand [7]. Group 4: Economic Concerns - Concerns over inflation due to tariff policies and the potential for increased government borrowing to cover deficits have contributed to the negative sentiment surrounding long-term bonds [8]. - The Congressional Budget Office projects that by 2035, the U.S. debt-to-GDP ratio could rise to 118%, surpassing historical highs, which raises further concerns about long-term bond investments [13].