中金：关注端午节后市场进展

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current market conditions and key events affecting the A-share market during the Dragon Boat Festival period, highlighting uncertainties in both domestic and international contexts that are influencing investor sentiment and market performance [2][6]. Domestic and International Events - The A-share market is experiencing a volatile pattern with reduced trading volume, as investors are shifting between different styles due to high uncertainties and a lack of sustained market hotspots [2]. - The U.S. has increased steel and aluminum tariffs from 25% to 50%, prompting potential retaliatory measures from the EU, which could further impact global supply chains and economic growth expectations [2][3]. - Recent developments in U.S.-China trade negotiations have introduced new discriminatory measures from the U.S., including restrictions on AI chip exports and visa cancellations for Chinese students, increasing instability in bilateral economic relations [3]. - The "Big and Beautiful Act" has introduced additional tax burdens on foreign investors from countries deemed to have punitive tax policies, potentially discouraging foreign investment in U.S. assets [3]. - Concerns over U.S. debt defaults have risen due to proposed budget plans that could add approximately $3 trillion to federal debt over the next decade, raising questions about fiscal sustainability [4]. - Geopolitical tensions are escalating, with recent drone attacks in Ukraine and preparations by Israel to strike Iranian nuclear facilities, indicating a potential increase in Middle Eastern conflicts [4]. Domestic Tourism and Travel Trends - During the Dragon Boat Festival from May 31 to June 2, 2025, an estimated 657 million people are expected to travel, averaging 219 million daily, which represents a 3.0% year-on-year increase [5]. - Railway passenger volume is projected to reach 47.1 million, with a daily average of 15.7 million, marking a 2.3% increase year-on-year [5]. - Road travel is expected to account for 600 million people, averaging 200 million daily, reflecting a 3.14% increase year-on-year [5]. - Air travel is anticipated to see 5.6 million passengers, with a daily average of 1.87 million, showing a 1.22% increase year-on-year [5]. - The trend indicates a preference for local and nearby travel, with a notable increase in demand for connecting flights for outbound travel, up nearly 20% year-on-year [5][10]. Market Outlook - Post-holiday, the A-share market is likely to remain in a phase of volatility, with medium-term resilience expected due to previous easing of trade tensions and supportive domestic monetary policies [6]. - Investors are anticipated to refocus on domestic policy and economic recovery signals, with macroeconomic data showing strong performance in April but potential weakening in May [6]. - The article suggests that sectors benefiting from policy support, such as mergers and acquisitions, and industries less affected by tariffs, like AI infrastructure and certain export-oriented sectors, should be closely monitored for investment opportunities [6].