模型提示市场情绪回落，小盘成长占优——量化择时周报20250531

Core Viewpoint - The market sentiment score has declined, indicating a bearish outlook for the market as it has ended its upward repair trend [1][4]. Group 1: Market Sentiment Indicators - The market sentiment structure indicator has shown significant fluctuations over the past five years, with a low position for most of 2023, only breaking above 2 in October 2024 [1]. - As of May 30, the market sentiment score was 2.5, down from 2.65 the previous week, suggesting a shift towards a bearish sentiment [1]. - The decline in sentiment is supported by a decrease in industry trading activity and a drop in the PCR combined with VIX indicators, reflecting increased uncertainty in fund sentiment [4][6]. Group 2: Industry Performance - The trading activity score across industries has significantly decreased, indicating a lack of investment themes and weak trends in industry performance [6][13]. - The overall trading volume in the A-share market has dropped, with a notable decline in the first three trading days of May, reaching a low of 1.16 trillion RMB on Friday [8]. - The industry performance shows that sectors like environmental protection, biomedicine, and national defense have maintained positive growth, while sectors like automobiles, electric equipment, and non-ferrous metals have seen significant declines [16][17]. Group 3: Short-term Trends - The short-term trend scoring model indicates that sectors such as computer, media, electronics, and biomedicine have shown significant upward trends, with the computer sector's score increasing by 22.22% [19][20]. - The model suggests that small-cap growth stocks are currently favored, with strong signals indicating a preference for this style despite a potential strengthening of value styles [21].