中国军工溯源与前景：以战斗机为例︱重阳来信2025年6月

Core Viewpoint - The successful combat performance of the J-10CE fighter jet has significantly boosted confidence in China's military equipment capabilities, leading to a notable increase in stock prices of related companies and the defense industry index [1][2]. Group 1: Fighter Jet Development History - The evolution of fighter jets can be categorized into five generations, with each generation marked by advancements in aerodynamics, propulsion, and technology [2][4]. - The first generation emerged during World War II, focusing on speed and the introduction of jet engines [2]. - The second generation, developed in the 1950s, emphasized high altitude and speed, incorporating radar and air-to-air missiles [2]. - The third generation, from the 1960s, featured enhanced maneuverability and advanced radar systems, leading to the development of various sub-variants [2]. - The fourth generation, starting in the late 1970s, prioritized high maneuverability and the use of electronic technology, with many countries' air forces still relying on these models [4]. - The fifth generation represents the most advanced fighter jets currently in service, characterized by comprehensive stealth capabilities [4][5]. - The sixth generation is still in conceptual or testing phases, with countries like China, the U.S., and Russia actively developing new models [5]. Group 2: China's Military Aviation Development - China's military aviation history began with the flight of "Fengru No. 1" in 1909, evolving from repair to manufacturing and eventually to independent design and military trade [6][7]. - The period from 1951 to 1960 marked the transition from repair to manufacturing, with significant milestones such as the successful production of the J-5 fighter jet [7][8]. - From 1960 to 1978, China advanced to independent design, exemplified by the successful development of the J-6 fighter jet [9][10]. - The years 1978 to 2012 saw China shift from primarily domestic use to expanding into military trade markets, highlighted by the development of the J-10 series [11][12]. - Since 2012, China has established itself as a significant player in the global military aviation market, with the J-20 and J-35 being notable fifth-generation fighters [12][13]. Group 3: Market Potential and Future Outlook - The global military trade market is projected to grow, with aircraft representing the largest segment, accounting for 46.4% of total military trade orders from 2015 to 2024 [14]. - China's share in the military trade market is currently 5.5%, with significant potential for growth, especially following the successful performance of the J-10CE [14]. - The military trade market's expansion is influenced by various factors, including geopolitical considerations and payment capabilities, indicating a complex landscape for future growth [14][16].