重阳说 查理·芒格先生有一句广为流传的话："我这一生当中，未曾见过不读书就智慧满满的人。没有。一个都没 有。沃伦（巴菲特）的阅读量之大可能会让你感到吃惊。我和他一样。我的孩子们打趣我说，我就是一 本长着两条腿的书。" 熟悉重阳的朋友们一定知道，阅读，一直是我们非常推崇的成长路径。 现在，我们希望和你一起，把阅读这件事坚持下去。 每一期专栏，我们依旧聊书，可能是书评、书单或者书摘。 每一期会有一个交流主题，希望你通过留言与我们互动。 我们精选优质好书，根据留言质量不定量送出。 世界莽莽，时间荒荒，阅读生出思考的力量，愿你感受到自己的思想有厚度且有方向，四通八达，尽情 徜徉。 提示：本公众号所发布的内容仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议和销售要约。如您对重阳产品感兴趣，欢 迎 扫码 咨询。 【好书】第319期：《韧性：心智升维、韧性锻造的乘数法则》 张晓萌 曹理达 著 中信出版集团 推荐人 编辑 刘雨婷 2025年10月 互动话题： 结合本书， 请谈谈你对"如何让组织更有韧性"的理解 。 留言时间：2024年2月11 日 - 2026年 2月25日 （鼓励原创，只要你的内容足够优秀，期期选中也有可能哦） 筛选及书籍（单 ...

前半句是世界观，讲的是万物运行之道，后半句是方法论，告诉人们遇到问题应当怎么做。 第 58 章则把这一原理具体落脚到"祸福相依"这样一个日常的智慧当中，使之成为了人人都可以理解 和掌握的方便法门。 在投资和商业管理中，这一智慧同样适用。 " 反者道之动，弱者道之用。天下万物生于有，有生于无。 "—— 《道德经》第 40 章 " 祸兮，福之所倚；福兮，祸之所伏。孰知其极？其无正也。正复为奇，善复为妖。人之迷，其日固 久。 "—— 《道德经》第 58 章 反者道之动，弱者道之用 作者/ 舒泰峰 重阳投资合伙人、财经作家 著有《财富是认知的变现》、《财富善战者说》等 "反者道之动，弱者道之用"是《道德经》的最精彩表述之一，它的意思是说道的运行规律是循环往复 的，物极必反；而道发挥作用的方式则是柔弱谦下，顺势而为。 （一） 1982 年 9 月 29 日早晨，芝加哥一位 12 岁的小女孩玛丽 · 凯勒曼由于感冒吃了一粒泰诺，几分 钟后倒地身亡。同一天，又有几名互不相识的受害者相继暴毙。警方发现，这些受害者唯一的共同点 就是服用了泰诺胶囊。经检测，胶囊里被混入了氰化物，含量是致死量的 100 倍。 全美陷入疯抢退货潮， ...

Q： 请问重阳投资，如何解读Kevin Warsh被提名为新任美联储主席？ A： 北京时间1月30日，特朗普正式宣布提名前美联储理事Kevin Warsh担任新任美联储主席。市 场预期一波三折的新任美联储主席人选终于落地。 从历史发言看，Kevin Warsh具有"降息+缩表"的政策倾向。 2025年以来为了争取美联储主席的职 位，Warsh一改此前关注美国通胀的鹰派表态，转而发表"关税主要是一次性价格冲击"、"AI带来的 生产力提升和去监管可在不提升通胀的情况下拉动经济增长"等鸽派言论。沃什同时也是一以贯之 的美联储QE批评者，其认为QE让美联储充当了财政角色，当前臃肿的联储资产负债表规模完全可 以大幅缩减。综合来看，沃什认为通胀来源于政府支出过度和货币发行过量，而"缩表"释放出来的 政策空间可以令美联储进一步降息，从而通过更低的利率形式重新投向居民部门以及中小企业。 事实上，无论谁就任下一任联储主席，在目前财政主导的时代，美联储能做的事情是非常有限的。 Warsh上任后大概率只能推动降息，而非缩表。在财政扩张的大背景下，美联储强行缩表，一方面 会让刚刚改善不久的回购市场流动性再度陷入危机，另一方面也会拉抬 ...

重阳说 查理·芒格先生有一句广为流传的话："我这一生当中，未曾见过不读书就智慧满满的人。没有。一个都没 有。沃伦（巴菲特）的阅读量之大可能会让你感到吃惊。我和他一样。我的孩子们打趣我说，我就是一 本长着两条腿的书。" 熟悉重阳的朋友们一定知道，阅读，一直是我们非常推崇的成长路径。 现在，我们希望和你一起，把阅读这件事坚持下去。 每一期专栏，我们依旧聊书，可能是书评、书单或者书摘。 每一期会有一个交流主题，希望你通过留言与我们互动。 我们精选优质好书，根据留言质量不定量送出。 世界莽莽，时间荒荒，阅读生出思考的力量，愿你感受到自己的思想有厚度且有方向，四通八达，尽情 徜徉。 提示：本公众号所发布的内容仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议和销售要约。如您对重阳产品感兴趣，欢 迎 扫码 咨询。 【好书】第318期：《巴菲特的雪球》 [美]约翰·特雷恩（John Train）著 季凯予 译 中国人民大学出版社 推荐人 编辑段雯昕 2026年1月 互动话题： 结合本书，请谈谈你对巴菲特式"滚雪球"的理解。 留言时间：2024年2月4 日 - 2026年 2月11日 （鼓励原创，只要你的内容足够优秀，期期选中也有可能哦） （选中 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the evolving landscape of AI applications in both domestic and international markets, highlighting the competitive strategies of major tech companies and the implications for investment opportunities in the AI sector [2][4][10]. Group 1: Domestic AI Market Developments - Major Chinese tech companies like Alibaba, Tencent, and Baidu are intensifying their AI product promotions around the Spring Festival, reminiscent of early mobile internet strategies that focused on user education through subsidies and traffic allocation [2][6]. - The competition has shifted from individual application features to securing a dominant position in the AI ecosystem, with companies aiming to embed AI capabilities across multiple high-frequency life scenarios [6][10]. - The focus is now on whether AI can generate sustainable user engagement and monetization, moving from "whether AI exists" to "how AI can be monetized" [6][10]. Group 2: International AI Market Trends - Companies like Anthropic are transitioning AI from a "dialogue tool" to a "personal assistant," with products designed for long-term collaboration and efficiency in tasks like writing and analysis [3][4]. - The global AI landscape is witnessing a shift towards embedding AI capabilities into real business scenarios, with a focus on retaining users through seamless integration rather than standalone products [10][11]. - OpenAI's ChatGPT has successfully educated a large user base, with projections of 850 million weekly active users and millions of paid subscribers by the end of 2025, indicating a strong market presence [6][10]. Group 3: Challenges and Opportunities - The introduction of AI agents is reshaping traditional B2B software models, as these agents can automate processes that previously required multiple human interactions, posing challenges to existing revenue models [8][10]. - Companies that can effectively integrate AI into their workflows and understand industry processes will likely thrive, while those that merely offer AI capabilities without deeper integration may struggle [8][12]. - The capital market's focus is shifting from whether AI will change the world to how these changes will translate into sustainable cash flows, emphasizing the need for clear business models and user retention strategies [12].

Q： 请问重阳投资， 如何解读近期部分城市二手房市场回暖的现象 ？ A： 开年以来，部分城市二手房市场出现了好转迹象。 部分城市出现了主要中介二手房挂牌量的 大幅下滑，尤其上海挂牌量较峰值下滑超过20%；二手房成交量和价格环比也明显改善，上海和北 京出现了成交价周环比企稳的现象，冰山指数统计的26城实时成交量环比相比去年12月同期涨幅 超过20%。 部分城市二手房市场好转，背后原因是春节前供需两端同时催化的结果。 供给端，二手房挂牌量 下降，一方面是季节性原因，由于每年春节前往往不是成交旺季，卖家倾向于先下架房源待春节后 小阳春再挂牌；另一方面，由于去年下半年二手房价下跌速度加快，部分房东倾向于先下架保价或 售转租，放大了季节性的影响，从而导致挂牌量下降速度加快。需求端，一方面由于去年下半年房 价下跌加快，学区房需求有所推迟，但由于入学要求三四月前需要落实学区，因此学区房需求集中 到今年一季度释放；另一方面，去年十一月份以来，低总价房源成交速度明显加快，上海地区300 万总价房源成交占比回升到50%以上，北京也出现了类似现象，这说明一线城市刚需入场有所加 快，今年开年出现了买方关注的房源快速被成交的现象，提振 ...

重阳说 查理·芒格先生有一句广为流传的话："我这一生当中，未曾见过不读书就智慧满满的人。没有。一个都没 有。沃伦（巴菲特）的阅读量之大可能会让你感到吃惊。我和他一样。我的孩子们打趣我说，我就是一 本长着两条腿的书。" 我们精选优质好书，根据留言质量不定量送出。 世界莽莽，时间荒荒，阅读生出思考的力量，愿你感受到自己的思想有厚度且有方向，四通八达，尽情 徜徉。 提示：本公众号所发布的内容仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议和销售要约。如您对重阳产品感兴趣，欢 迎 扫码 咨询。 【好书】第317期：《黑石传》 [美] 戴维·凯里（David Carey） 熟悉重阳的朋友们一定知道，阅读，一直是我们非常推崇的成长路径。 现在，我们希望和你一起，把阅读这件事坚持下去。 每一期专栏，我们依旧聊书，可能是书评、书单或者书摘。 每一期会有一个交流主题，希望你通过留言与我们互动。 [美] 约翰· 莫里斯（John E. Morris）著 巴曙松 陈剑 译 湛庐文化/浙江教育出版社 推荐人 编辑 林他 2026年1月 互动话题： 结合本书， 请谈谈你对黑石或者其投资理念的认识 。 留言时间：2024年1月28 日 - 2026年 2月 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Producer Price Index (PPI) in China has shown zero growth over the past 15 years, despite a significant GDP increase of 250% during the same period, indicating a persistent weakness in PPI and underlying demand issues [1][5]. Group 1: PPI Trends and Historical Context - The PPI has been in a declining trend since October 2021, with a year-on-year decrease of 1.9% reported for December 2025, marking 39 consecutive months of decline [1][5]. - Historical data shows that from March 2012 to August 2016, PPI experienced negative growth for 54 months, and from July 2019 to January 2021, there were 18 months of negative growth [1][5]. - The PPI index, set at 100 in December 2010, remained at 100 by December 2025, indicating no overall price increase in 15 years [1][5]. Group 2: Factors Influencing PPI - The PPI's long-term decline is attributed to an oversupply in production capacity, particularly after China's entry into the WTO, which led to a significant drop in export dependence [12][13]. - The fluctuation in PPI is primarily influenced by the prices of production materials, which have shown a cumulative increase of zero over the past 15 years, while living material prices have increased by 4.4% [8][11]. - The prices of living materials peaked at 108.4% in November 2022 before declining, likely due to the end of pandemic-related restrictions [9]. Group 3: Demand and Supply Dynamics - The weak demand in the downstream market, particularly after the real estate sector peaked in 2021, has hindered the transmission of price increases from upstream to downstream sectors [41][42]. - The relationship between real estate investment and PPI is evident, with a significant drop in real estate investment correlating with the decline in PPI [36][38]. - The overall demand for consumer goods has been on a downward trend, with industrial value-added growth outpacing terminal demand growth since 2020, indicating a supply surplus [31][33]. Group 4: Recommendations for Economic Adjustment - To promote a moderate recovery in price levels, it is essential to adjust the supply-demand relationship, particularly by expanding effective demand [42]. - The focus should be on increasing the income of middle and low-income groups to stimulate consumption, while stabilizing the real estate market to alleviate oversupply issues [52]. - The government should optimize fiscal spending structures to enhance direct transfers to residents, thereby increasing disposable income and consumption [52].

Economic Overview - The nominal GDP for 2025 reached 140.2 trillion yuan, achieving a growth target of 5%, with a fourth-quarter GDP growth rate of 4.5% [2] - Fixed asset investment decreased by 3.8%, while exports grew by 6.1% and household consumption increased by 4.4%, with service retail sales growing by 5.5% [2] - The contributions to economic growth from final consumption expenditure and net exports were 52% and 32.7%, respectively, indicating that exports and service consumption were the main drivers of growth [2] Investment Trends - National fixed asset investment, excluding real estate, fell by 0.5%, with infrastructure investment down by 2.2% due to local government special bonds being used for debt repayment [3] - Real estate investment saw a significant decline of 17.2%, with residential sales area dropping to 730 million square meters, an 8.7% decrease from the previous year [3] - Manufacturing investment grew by 0.6%, supported by a notable 11.8% increase in equipment renewal investment due to long-term special treasury bonds [3] Future Economic Projections - The central economic work conference indicated a goal to stabilize investment, with expectations for investment growth to turn positive in 2026 due to increased infrastructure spending from local special bonds [3] - The economic growth target for 2026 is likely to remain stable, with a projected GDP growth rate of 4.17% from 2025 to 2035, considering the demographic changes [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of "common knowledge" as a foundational concept in human cooperation and social functioning, highlighting its role in shaping societal behaviors and expectations [8][36]. Group 1: Definition and Characteristics of Common Knowledge - Common knowledge is defined as a state where individuals not only know a fact but also know that others know it, creating a recursive understanding that influences behavior [10][36]. - It differs from private knowledge, which only requires individuals to know the same information without awareness of others' knowledge [12][24]. - The concept is crucial for understanding social coordination, as it allows individuals to align their actions based on shared awareness [11][36]. Group 2: Impact on Social Behavior - Common knowledge facilitates cooperation by enabling complementary choices among individuals, leading to mutually beneficial outcomes [12][36]. - It plays a significant role in public life, explaining phenomena such as social norms, rituals, and collective behaviors, which can sometimes lead to negative outcomes like panic or economic bubbles [11][36]. - The article discusses how common knowledge can create non-material realities, influencing societal structures like language, religion, and governance [35][36]. Group 3: Examples and Applications - The article uses the example of the children's story "The Emperor's New Clothes" to illustrate how common knowledge can shift public perception and behavior [10][36]. - It highlights the importance of language as a primary form of common knowledge, enabling effective communication and coordination among individuals [25][36]. - The article also addresses the challenges of achieving common knowledge in social interactions, using the "dating game" scenario to illustrate coordination difficulties [32][36].