编者按 在格雷格·阿贝尔作为伯克希尔新任CEO给股东们发出股东信之际，芒格书院翻译了这篇《财富 （Fortune）》杂志2025年1月22日的报道，分享给每一位关注伯克希尔的朋友。 希望这篇文章能带我们走近格雷格·阿贝尔，深入了解这位新任"舵手"的故事。阿贝尔出身加拿大的工人 阶级家庭。他爱好冰球，善于维护团队关系。事业上，他从会计审计出身，在能源、公用事业与工程项 目这类受监管行业里长期打磨，对现金流、风险与资本成本的敏感被训练到近乎本能；从谈判到运营管 理，他以低调、可信与强执行著称。很多人都说阿贝尔是巴菲特"同款模子"制作出来的，但他也有自己 的风格与特点。 ——BY 芒格书院 以下，祝开卷有得。 提示：本公众号所发布的内容仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议和销售要约。如您对重阳产品感兴趣，欢 迎 扫码 咨询。 图文来源/ 微信公众号【 芒格书院 】 作者/ 芒格书院 ， 本图文已获得转载授权，如需转载请联系原作者， 文章仅代表作者个人独立观点。 "沃伦，谁会接任你的CEO？" 这大概成了公司史上被问得最多、却始终得不到答案的问题之一。多年 来，在伯克希尔·哈撒韦年度股东大会的台上问答环节里，人们年复一年把这 ...

Q： 请问重阳投资，如何看待2026年房地产市场"小阳春"行情？ A： 春节以来房地产市场"小阳春"行情，呈现出"京沪先暖、二手强于新房、刚需主导、量升价 稳"的鲜明特征。 城市分化：京沪领跑，复苏梯队逐步成形 从区域表现来看，本轮复苏呈现出清晰的城市能级分化，且头部城市率先企稳的态势正在形 成。一线城市尤其是京沪两地表现亮眼，春节后至今二手房成交农历同比分别增长28.6%和 36.5%，显著高于全国21.9%的增速。北京、上海的二手房去化周期已分别降至8.6个月和4.1 个月，库存结构持续改善。核心城市的企稳，往往是市场底部形成的先行信号——尽管全国层 面2026年1-2月新建商品房销售面积同比仍下降13.5%，70个大中城市中仍有多数城市二手 房价处于下行通道，但"核心城市率先筑底、修复能量向外扩散"的历史规律在本轮中再度得到 印证，市场底部区域特征日趋明显。 业态分化：二手市场活跃，新房蓄力可期 在业态层面，二手房市场的活跃度明显优于新房，并在量价两端均出现积极信号。数据显示， 北京二手房网签套数是新房的2.07倍，上海为1.46倍。第11周重点20城二手房成交环比增加 21.97%、同比增长13.68 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of reading as a pathway to growth and understanding, particularly in the context of investment strategies and philosophies, as exemplified by Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger [2][3][6]. Group 1: Book Recommendation - The featured book is "Buffett's Golden Age" by Glen Arnold, which explores Buffett's investment strategies during his most successful decade from 1989 to 1998 [8][10]. - The book presents ten real-life investment cases that illustrate Buffett's ability to learn from mistakes and adapt his strategies, showcasing his journey from a net asset of less than $5 billion to over $57 billion [11][21]. Group 2: Investment Philosophy - The article highlights two key characteristics of Buffett's investment approach: his candid acknowledgment of mistakes and his ability to learn from them, which fosters respect and trust among investors [15][16]. - It also discusses how abstract investment principles are made tangible through specific case studies, allowing readers to better understand Buffett's strategies, such as his contrarian approach during market fears [17][19]. Group 3: Case Studies - The article outlines several significant investment cases, including those involving Wells Fargo, American Airlines, and General Re, which demonstrate the challenges Buffett faced and how he overcame them [15][21]. - These cases collectively contributed to Berkshire Hathaway's market value skyrocketing from $5 billion to over $100 billion during the specified period, illustrating the effectiveness of Buffett's investment philosophy [21].

Group 1 - The article discusses the evolution of fear and its significance in human survival, emphasizing that those with stronger fear responses were more likely to survive in dangerous environments [5][6][7]. - Fear triggers physiological responses that enhance survival, such as increased adrenaline production, faster heart rates, and heightened alertness, which are crucial for escaping threats [6][8]. - The amygdala in the brain is identified as the center for fear memory, reacting faster than the blink of an eye, which illustrates the instinctual nature of fear [8][9]. Group 2 - Historical examples of market crashes, such as the 1929 stock market crash and the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic, demonstrate how fear can lead to panic selling and significant market declines [12][13]. - The article highlights that fear can paralyze investors, leading them to avoid investing altogether, which can result in long-term financial losses due to inflation eroding cash value [14]. - Warren Buffett's investment philosophy emphasizes the importance of contrarian thinking, suggesting that fear can create buying opportunities for savvy investors [16][17]. Group 3 - The article advocates for reverse thinking as a strategy to counteract fear, encouraging investors to act contrary to prevailing market emotions [15][19]. - Buffett's famous quote about being greedy when others are fearful illustrates the effectiveness of this contrarian approach in capitalizing on market downturns [19][22]. - The concept of historical perspective is discussed, noting that both extreme fear and overconfidence can lead to poor investment decisions, thus highlighting the need for balanced judgment [23].

Core Viewpoint - The economic data for January-February 2026 shows significant improvement in production, investment, and consumption, exceeding market expectations [2] Group 1: Production - The industrial added value for large-scale enterprises increased by 6.3% year-on-year in the first two months, with notable growth in electronics, shipbuilding, and electrical machinery [2] - The improvement in production is closely linked to better-than-expected exports, highlighting the continued strength of external demand [2] Group 2: Investment - Fixed asset investment grew by 1.8% year-on-year in January-February, marking a recovery from negative growth [3] - Broad infrastructure investment surged by 9.8% year-on-year, significantly contributing to the positive turnaround in fixed asset investment, driven by the implementation of policy financial tools from the previous year [2][3] Group 3: Consumption - Social retail sales increased by 2.8% year-on-year, with a notable trend of stronger service consumption compared to goods consumption [2] - Service retail sales grew by 5.6% year-on-year, benefiting from the extended Spring Festival holiday, which boosted travel and dining services [2] Group 4: Real Estate - Real estate investment declined by 11.1% year-on-year in January-February, but this represents an improvement from a 17.2% decline at the end of the previous year [3] - The housing market is showing signs of recovery, with some cities experiencing increased transactions in the second-hand housing market due to reduced listings and policy stimuli [3] Group 5: Economic Outlook - Overall, the economic performance in January-February reflects a strong production sector, recovering investment, and rising consumption [3] - Seasonal adjustments indicate that the data remains robust, with an estimated GDP growth of around 5.0% for the first quarter, suggesting a positive start to the year [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the enduring legacy of the Qian family, highlighting their historical significance and the principles outlined in the "Qian Family Instructions," which emphasize moral integrity, family values, and societal responsibilities as keys to long-term prosperity and success [5][8][20]. Group 1: Historical Significance - The Qian family, originating from the Wu-Yue region, is recognized as a prominent lineage that has thrived for over a thousand years, with notable figures in various fields including politics, science, and culture [5][6]. - The family's rise began with Qian Liu, who established the Wu-Yue Kingdom during the tumultuous Five Dynasties and Ten Kingdoms period, focusing on governance and the welfare of the people [5][6]. - The Qian family's decision to peacefully integrate into the Song Dynasty under Qian Hongchu helped preserve the lives of many citizens, earning them recognition and favor from the ruling dynasty [5][9]. Group 2: Qian Family Instructions - The "Qian Family Instructions," compiled over centuries, serves as a comprehensive guide on personal conduct, family management, social interactions, and national responsibilities, reflecting the family's values and wisdom [8][12]. - Key teachings include the importance of loyalty, filial piety, and the pursuit of knowledge, emphasizing that even descendants of humble beginnings should prioritize education and moral integrity [15][33]. - The instructions advocate for mutual support within the family, encouraging wealthier members to assist those in need and to establish educational institutions for the benefit of the community [15][16]. Group 3: Investment and Wealth Accumulation - The article draws parallels between the teachings of the Qian family and modern investment principles, highlighting the importance of adaptability and strategic thinking in both personal and financial endeavors [13][20]. - Key insights include the necessity of maintaining a humble and cautious approach to wealth, as well as the value of long-term planning over short-term gains [19][20]. - The Qian family's emphasis on moral conduct and community support is presented as a framework for sustainable wealth accumulation and social responsibility [16][19].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of psychological abundance as a third paradigm of a good life, distinct from happiness and meaning, advocating for a life rich in diverse and complex experiences [24][25]. Group 1: Concept of Psychological Abundance - Psychological abundance is defined as the accumulation of diverse and complex life experiences, contrasting with the regrets of missed opportunities [25]. - Unlike happiness, which is a fluctuating subjective feeling, psychological abundance is about the richness of experiences over time [15][25]. - The article suggests that the journey of life, filled with experiences, is more important than the destination itself [17][25]. Group 2: Factors Influencing Life Satisfaction - The article discusses the relationship between job satisfaction and perceived fairness in compensation, highlighting that higher salaries correlate with greater job satisfaction [12]. - It presents data showing that 80% of actuaries and 78% of computer scientists report job satisfaction, while only 65% of police officers and 59% of social workers feel the same [11][12]. - The significance of work is also addressed, noting that many in high-satisfaction jobs do not find their work meaningful, while those in lower-satisfaction roles often perceive their work as meaningful [12][13]. Group 3: Tenets of Psychological Abundance - The article outlines ten principles for achieving psychological abundance, including embracing spontaneity, maintaining a playful attitude, and valuing experiences over material success [18][19][20]. - It emphasizes the importance of storytelling and reflection as means to cultivate psychological richness [21][22]. - The article encourages individuals to seek new experiences and knowledge, suggesting that this pursuit can lead to a more fulfilling life [17][22].

Core Viewpoint - The core focus of the article is on the principles that new CEO Greg Abel will uphold in managing Berkshire Hathaway, emphasizing the continuity of the company's investment culture and long-term value creation rather than the legacy of any individual leader [2]. Group 1: Stock Buyback - Berkshire Hathaway has resumed its stock buyback program, which is based on the principle that the intrinsic value of the company exceeds its market price [9]. - The last stock buyback occurred in May 2024, and the decision to restart was made after discussions with Warren Buffett [12]. - Abel emphasized that the company will continue to buy back shares as long as the intrinsic value remains higher than the market value, but specific amounts and timing of buybacks will not be disclosed [12][14]. Group 2: CEO's Salary Investment - Greg Abel disclosed that he will reinvest his entire after-tax salary, approximately $15.3 million, into Berkshire Hathaway stock, demonstrating alignment with shareholder interests [21][22]. - This commitment is intended to last for 20 years, reinforcing the principle of shared interests between the CEO and shareholders [27]. - Abel's approach is unique in the corporate world, as he aims to maintain consistency with shareholders by investing his entire salary into the company [30][34]. Group 3: Future Plans and Market Outlook - Berkshire Hathaway currently holds $373 billion in cash and is actively looking for investment opportunities, although it is not solely focused on reducing cash reserves [40]. - Abel is assessing various investment options and will deploy capital when suitable opportunities arise, maintaining a disciplined approach to capital allocation [40][44]. - The company is not currently considering dividends unless it fails to create value exceeding $1 per share, viewing stock buybacks as a viable method of returning capital to shareholders [49]. Group 4: Recent Developments - Abel expressed support for the decision to pause the split of Kraft Heinz, indicating concerns about the potential loss of synergies from such a move [58]. - The company is facing challenges related to wildfire incidents and associated lawsuits, with Abel stating that they will accept responsibility where appropriate but will contest unreasonable claims [60][61]. - The insurance business has seen a decline in profits, attributed to increased competition and a disciplined underwriting approach [69].

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing Israel-Iran conflict is expected to persist longer than anticipated, impacting global supply chains and creating short-term risks for Chinese assets, while potentially benefiting them in the medium to long term [2][3][4]. Group 1: Conflict Analysis - The Israel-Iran conflict has lasted for 14 days as of February 28, with Iran continuing its aggressive stance and effectively blocking the Strait of Hormuz [2]. - The U.S. administration, led by Trump, is recognizing the disproportionate costs and benefits of deep involvement in the conflict, with domestic political interests influencing their strategy [2]. - The probability of a ceasefire before April 30 is now below 50%, indicating a high likelihood of continued conflict [2]. Group 2: Global Supply Chain Impact - The conflict has exposed the vulnerabilities in global supply chains, particularly the reliance on the Strait of Hormuz for oil and gas transportation [3]. - Even if the conflict ceases, the perception of risk in global energy supply chains will likely lead to a permanent increase in risk pricing and a diversification of energy sources [3]. Group 3: Implications for Chinese Assets - In the short term, the conflict may cause fluctuations in risk appetite and market sentiment, but China's robust energy reserves and manufacturing capabilities mitigate the fundamental economic impact [3]. - The potential for adjustments in overvalued sectors exists, but significant declines in the market are not anticipated due to the presence of undervalued and stable companies [3]. - In the long term, China's strong foreign exchange reserves, stable sovereign credit, and advanced manufacturing and renewable energy technologies position it as a safe haven asset amid global geopolitical turmoil, likely increasing global demand for RMB assets [4].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the misconception that having a registration number equates to official approval, highlighting the need for awareness regarding the distinction between registration and actual regulatory approval in the context of private equity investments [1]. Summary by Sections - The article features a micro-drama titled "Beware of Pseudo Private Equity," produced by Yicai and the China Securities Investor Service Center, which aims to educate investors about the risks associated with unregulated investment schemes [1]. - A guest speaker, Shu Taifeng, a partner at Shanghai Chongyang Investment, discusses the importance of understanding the difference between registration and approval, addressing common investor misconceptions [1].