以下文章来源于聪明投资者 ，作者聪明投资者 聪明投资者 . 聚焦优秀投资人和企业家，甄选高质量的内容，追求可累进的成长。更多内容可下载"聪明投资 者"APP，官网：www.cmtzz.cn 编者按 "如果我们真正理解了脆弱，我们就能理解反脆弱：有些系统能在冲击中变得更强、更好，反而因波动而 受益。" "如果我有一个投资组合，运气好时赚100万，运气不好时亏500万。这就是个脆弱的结构；反过来：如果 最差是亏100万，但最好的结果可以赚500万。这才是反脆弱的。" "今天，有哪种资产能从不确定性中受益？第一就是黄金。" "我们知道AI会消灭哪些工作，但我们并不知道它最终会创造哪些新岗位。所以每当有人问我该怎么办， 我就告诉他们：面对这种不确定性，先观望。" "很多人没有意识到（中国在很多地方没有负面形象）这一点有多重要。如果你拥有良好的声誉，有朋 友，那从经济角度看会非常有利，也对增长很有帮助。" 以下，祝开卷有得。 提示：本公众号所发布的内容仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议和销售要约。如您对重阳产品感兴趣，欢 迎 扫码 咨询。 图文来源/ 微信公众号【聪明投资者】 作者/聪明投资者，本图文已获得转载授权，如需转载 ...

【 点击图片查看部分精彩回放】 8月7日 新浪财经"金融一线" 消息，招商银行在深举办"财富启新程 湾区共潮生——2025财富合作伙伴论坛"，头部基金、理财、保险、私募机构齐聚粤港澳大湾 区，共商大财富管理高质量发展新征程。 上海重阳投资管理股份有限公司董事长王庆出席论坛并发表主题演讲，他表示，一个成熟的资管市场会对不同的收益层次、不同的投资策略带来的不同投资体验 给予不同的定价，只要定价准确，潜在需求就会释放。近年来，我国资管市场在逐渐走向成熟，经过2021年以来市场熊市的锤炼，主观多头策略已经开始进入高 质量发展阶段，开始更专注于赚取相对稳定的Alpha收益。重阳投资采用的具体解决方案是投决会领导下的多基金经理共管模式。 文字实录 私募基金正在进入高质量发展阶段 尊敬的王良行长、王颖副行长，尊敬的各位嘉宾，大家下午好！ 今天我想学学老外先讲一个故事。今天作为私募代表站在这里，一个很重要的原因是招商银行在全国范围内代销的第一款私募产品就是我们重阳担任投顾的产 品。它成立于2009年9月*日，换句话说，还有不到1个月，它在招商银行架上就运行整16年了。这个产品的最新净值是在历史最高点附近，它的规模也挺大，处 ...

Q： 请问重阳投资， 如何解读美国7月非农就业数据及当前就业形势 ？ A： 8月1日，美国劳工统计局公布7月非农就业数据。美国7月新增非农就业人数7.3万，失业率从 上个月4.12%小幅上行至4.25%，同时6月非农就业人数从14.7万下修到1.4万，5月从14.4万下修到 1.9万，两月合计下修25.8万人，创下了2020年5月（下修64.2万）后最大下修幅度。 美国就业市场降温速度加快。 7月数据公布后，美国新增非农就业人数的3月移动平均仅有3.5万 人，剔除政府后私营部门3月平均就业人数5.2万，相较年初水平再度下台阶。从结构上看，非周期 性的教育医疗行业就业始终稳定，一直保持在5-10万/月，是非农就业的中坚力量，而其他行业增 长疲软。制造业3月平均新增就业-12.3万人，建筑业新增2.3万人，均大幅下降，贸易运输和商业服 务延续负增长，周期性行业就业明显恶化。政府就业5-6月平均下修6万人，本月同样录得负增，政 府裁员的影响预计仍将逐步显现。关于前两月非农大幅下修的情况，美国劳工统计局的解释是初值 回复率低且重新计算了季调因子。疫情后美国企业调查首次反馈率下行的问题一直存在，但在经济 转弱时期，中小 ...

重阳说 查理·芒格先生有一句广为流传的话："我这一生当中，未曾见过不读书就智慧满满的人。没有。一个都没 有。沃伦（巴菲特）的阅读量之大可能会让你感到吃惊。我和他一样。我的孩子们打趣我说，我就是一 本长着两条腿的书。" 熟悉重阳的朋友们一定知道，阅读，一直是我们非常推崇的成长路径。 现在，我们希望和你一起，把阅读这件事坚持下去。 每一期专栏，我们依旧聊书，可能是书评、书单或者书摘。 每一期会有一个交流主题，希望你通过留言与我们互动。 我们精选优质好书，根据留言质量不定量送出。 世界莽莽，时间荒荒，阅读生出思考的力量，愿你感受到自己的思想有厚度且有方向，四通八达，尽情 徜徉。 提示：本公众号所发布的内容仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议和销售要约。如您对重阳产品感兴趣，欢 迎 扫码 咨询。 【好书】第296期：《 加密货币与金融大变局 》 艾利艾咨询 编著 李未柠 主编 中信出版集团 推荐人 营销编辑 马萱 2025年8月 互动话题： 结合本书 ， 请谈谈你对稳定币的理解 。 留言时间：2024年8月6 日 - 2025年 8月13日 （鼓励原创，只要你的内容足够优秀，期期选中也有可能哦） 筛选及书籍（单本）寄送：20 ...

致尊敬的您： 当硅料价格在2025年7月突破4.9万元/吨，较年初上涨超30%时，光伏 行业终于迎来了久违的喘息。这场被《人民日报》多次点名的"内卷 式"竞争，曾让全产业链陷入亏损泥潭——2023年至2024年，光伏主材 各环节单瓦净利跌幅超80%，头部企业毛利率腰斩。如今， 在政策强 力介入与行业自律协同下，光伏行业正经历一场自上而下的供给侧变 革，不仅关乎光伏产业自身兴衰，更为中国制造业突破同质化竞争的 困局提供重要参考。 ▲向上滑动阅览 【免责声明】 本材料由上海重阳投资管理股份有限公司（简称"重阳投资"）原创并编辑发布，仅限于提供信息和投资者 教育的目的。本材料所依据信息和资料来源于公开渠道（例如：万得、彭博）和内部研究成果，相关信息 被认为是可靠的，但重阳投资不对其完整性或准确性作出任何明示或默示的陈述或保证。相关信息仅供参 考，不构成广告、销售要约，或交易任何证券、基金或投资产品的建议。本材料中引用的任何实体、品 牌、商品等仅作为研究分析对象使用，不代表重阳投资的实际操作。因基金产品投资限制、投资组合调整 和交易成本等多种因素，重阳投资的实际操作有可能与本材料中得出的结论不同。 最低成本价，以供全 ...

▲向上滑动阅览 【免责声明】 本材料由上海重阳投资管理股份有限公司（简称"重阳投资"）原创并编辑发布，仅限于提供信息和投资者 教育的目的。本材料所依据信息和资料来源于公开渠道（例如：万得、彭博）和内部研究成果，相关信息 被认为是可靠的，但重阳投资不对其完整性或准确性作出任何明示或默示的陈述或保证。相关信息仅供参 考，不构成广告、销售要约，或交易任何证券、基金或投资产品的建议。本材料中引用的任何实体、品 牌、商品等仅作为研究分析对象使用，不代表重阳投资的实际操作。因基金产品投资限制、投资组合调整 和交易成本等多种因素，重阳投资的实际操作有可能与本材料中得出的结论不同。 本材料并不考虑任何阅读者的特定投资需求、投资目标或风险承受能力。阅读者在投资之前，应当仔细阅 读产品法律文件和风险揭示书，充分认识产品的风险收益特征和产品特性，并充分考虑自身的风险承受能 力，理性判断并谨慎做出投资决策。 本材料版权属于重阳投资 未经重阳投资授权 任何机构和个人不得以任何形式转发 转载 翻版 复 公众号改变了推送规则， 我们的文章可能会迷失在茫茫的信息流中， 你的一个 分享、点赞、"在看" ， 能让我们之间的距离更近一步， 为了更 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of reading as a pathway to growth and wisdom, highlighting the belief that knowledge acquisition is essential for making informed financial decisions [2][3][7]. Group 1: Book Recommendation - The featured book in this issue is "The Disappearing Billionaire: A Better Guide to Investment and Financial Decision-Making," which discusses the challenges of wealth preservation compared to wealth creation [9][18]. - The book provides a framework for making systematic and rational investment and financial decisions, aiming to help individuals avoid catastrophic wealth loss due to poor risk management [18][19]. Group 2: Experiment Insights - An experiment involving 61 participants was conducted to explore betting strategies in a simulated coin-flipping game, which mirrors investment market characteristics [12][14]. - Participants were informed of a 60% probability of winning on heads, and they had to decide their betting amounts and strategies within a 30-minute timeframe [14][18]. Group 3: Optimal Strategy Discussion - The article encourages readers to consider their strategies for maximizing returns in the coin-flipping game, which serves as a metaphor for investment decision-making [16][18]. - It raises the question of why there are no billionaires who have maintained their wealth across generations, attributing this to poor risk decisions in investments and spending [18][19].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the economic outlook for the second half of the year, emphasizing the need for policy support to achieve the annual GDP growth target of 5% after a 5.3% growth in the first half of the year [1][5]. Economic Performance - The actual GDP growth in the first half of the year was 5.3%, with Q1 at 5.4% and Q2 at 5.2%, exceeding the 5% annual target [5][7]. - The GDP deflator index in Q2 fell by 1.2%, marking the ninth consecutive quarter of negative growth, leading to a nominal GDP growth of only 3.9% [5][8]. - The growth was primarily driven by proactive policies and early consumer demand stimulation, particularly through the "trade-in" policy [7][8]. Consumer and Investment Trends - Retail sales of consumer goods increased by 5% in the first half, with significant growth in categories related to the "trade-in" policy, such as home appliances and furniture [8][11]. - Fixed asset investment grew by only 2.8%, with infrastructure investment up by 4.6% and manufacturing investment by 7.5%, while real estate investment declined by 11.2% [11][19]. - Equipment investment surged by 17.3%, contributing 86% to overall investment growth [11][19]. Export Dynamics - Exports showed resilience, with a 5.9% increase in dollar terms, despite a 10.9% decline in exports to the U.S. [15][19]. - The diversification of exports helped mitigate the impact of reduced U.S. demand, with significant growth in exports to Africa, ASEAN, and the EU [15][19]. Economic Concerns - Despite positive data, there are concerns about potential weaknesses in the economy, particularly in consumer spending and manufacturing investment in the second half [19][20]. - The "trade-in" policy's impact on retail sales is expected to diminish in the latter half of the year due to lower funding and higher base effects from last year [19][20]. - Real estate sales and prices are showing signs of weakness, with new housing sales down by 3.5% and sales revenue down by 5.5% in the first half [23][24]. Policy Outlook - The article anticipates that the government will focus on targeted policies rather than large-scale stimulus, given the strong economic foundation laid in the first half [27][28]. - Potential policy directions include optimizing existing programs like the "trade-in" initiative and addressing restrictions on consumer spending [29][30]. - Infrastructure investment is expected to be a key area of focus, with ongoing projects and new financing tools being introduced to support technology and consumption [30][31]. Monetary Policy - The monetary policy is expected to remain supportive, with potential for minor adjustments in reserve requirements and interest rates [34][35]. - The article suggests that the central bank may take a cautious approach to monetary easing, focusing on maintaining stability in the currency exchange rate [35][36]. Structural Issues - The article highlights that the main challenges facing the Chinese economy are structural rather than total output-related, emphasizing the need for a focus on domestic and international circulation [26][38].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the insights from the new book "2049: The Possibilities of the Next 10,000 Days" by Kevin Kelly and Wu Chen, which explores the transformative trends in technology, society, and economy over the next 25 years, emphasizing concepts like the mirror world, AI collaboration, genetic revolution, space economy, and "Cool China" [1][6]. Summary by Sections Insights from "2049" - The book serves as a guide for navigating an uncertain future, focusing on the framework of thinking rather than specific predictions [6]. - It highlights the tension between the acceleration of AI and the persistence of industrial-era systems, suggesting that significant changes will take time [6][7]. The Concept of the Mirror World - The mirror world represents a new paradigm of human-computer interaction, moving beyond traditional interfaces to a more immersive experience [12]. - It requires a virtual engine, termed Universal Personal Agent (UPA), which acts as a personal assistant, enhancing communication and interaction [13][15]. Impact on Education - The book posits that AI will fundamentally disrupt traditional education systems, moving from a scarcity of resources to a more abundant and personalized learning experience [20][21]. - It suggests that the role of education will shift from credentialing to fostering genuine skills and connections among individuals [22][23]. The Future of Work and AI - The discussion includes the potential for AI to replace certain tasks but emphasizes that it will also empower individuals, changing the nature of work rather than simply eliminating jobs [8][9]. - The relationship between humans and AI is framed as one of collaboration rather than competition, with AI serving as a tool for enhancement [9][10]. The Cool Economy - The article introduces the idea of a "cool economy," where emotional value and cultural connections become paramount, moving beyond mere functionality [36][38]. - It emphasizes the importance of creativity and personal expression in a future where technology enables diverse and individualized experiences [39][40]. Content Creation and Individual Empowerment - The potential for a content explosion is highlighted, where anyone with a good idea can create and share content, facilitated by AI tools [42][43]. - The concept of "super individuals" emerges, where personal insights and unique perspectives can thrive in a digital economy [43]. Healthcare Transformation - The article hints at the transformative impact of AI on healthcare, suggesting that it will lead to more personalized and efficient medical services [45].

Core Viewpoint - The bond market has experienced significant volatility since July, with rising yields and a downward trend, influenced by the performance of equity and commodity markets [1][2]. Group 1: Market Trends - Since July, the bond market has shown increased volatility, with the 10-year government bond yield rising over 5 basis points and the 30-year yield rising over 8 basis points, surpassing 1.9% [1]. - The adjustment in the bond market is attributed to the upward breakthrough in equity and commodity markets, with a notable shift from a two-year upward trend to a narrow range of fluctuations [1]. - The yield spread between the 10-year and 1-year government bonds remains at a historical low of 20 basis points, indicating a crowded and fragile trading structure [1]. Group 2: Economic Fundamentals - The macroeconomic fundamentals of the bond market remain stable, with structural issues in the Chinese economy still needing resolution, characterized by strong production but weak demand [2]. - The real estate market is in a phase of stabilization, and the long-term asset shortage is expected to persist, leading to a prolonged period of moderately loose monetary policy [2]. - The current dividend yield of the CSI All Share Index has dropped to around 2%, narrowing the gap with the 10-year government bond yield, thus enhancing the attractiveness of bonds [2]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The 10-year government bond yield is estimated to be reasonably priced between 1.8% and 1.9%, with a potential need for effective demand-side stimulus policies to break through this range [2]. - The bond market is expected to return to a healthier state as the central bank gradually loosens liquidity and resumes government bond trading [2].