【招银研究】关税仍将反复，经济短期改善——宏观与策略周度前瞻（2025.06.03-06.06）

Economic Overview - The US economy is maintaining a steady expansion, with the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations converging to two times (approximately 50 basis points), and the terminal rate expectation raised to 3.5% [2] - The Atlanta Fed's GDPNOW model predicts a sharp increase in the annualized growth rate of US real GDP to 4.6% in Q2, driven by a reversal in "import grabbing," with personal consumption (PCE) growth reaching 4.0% [2] - Private investment (excluding inventory) growth is at 4.4%, primarily supported by equipment (8.8%) and intellectual property (5.5%) contributions [2] - The job market remains robust, with unemployment levels stable, and initial jobless claims rising to 240,000, aligning with seasonal levels [2] Inflation and Fiscal Policy - Market concerns about inflation are easing, with the Truflation daily inflation index dropping to 1.84%, down 26 basis points from previous highs [3] - Despite ongoing rhetoric about deficit reduction, the fiscal deficit continues to expand, with weekly fiscal deficit reaching $127.5 billion, exceeding seasonal levels [3] - The Federal Reserve is unlikely to make significant policy adjustments, with expectations of a "hawkish rate cut" that emphasizes returning rates to neutral levels without indicating future policy trends [3] Overseas Strategy - Market risk appetite improved due to the suspension of Trump’s tariffs, leading to rebounds in US Treasury yields and the dollar, while gold prices fell [4] - The US stock market saw gains influenced by tariff policy changes, with corporate earnings showing resilience against economic fluctuations [4] - However, deep-rooted trade tensions remain unresolved, limiting upward potential for US stock valuations [4] Chinese Economic Insights - In April, industrial profits for large-scale industrial enterprises grew by 3.0% year-on-year, with industrial added value increasing by 6.1% [8] - The manufacturing sector shows signs of recovery, with the manufacturing PMI rising to 49.5% in May, indicating improved production and new orders [9] - Real estate transactions are entering a low season, with new home sales declining by 4.1% in May, although the decline is narrowing compared to April [9] External Demand and Trade - "Export grabbing" remains active but is losing momentum, with container shipping rates showing mixed trends across different routes [10] - The US Treasury Secretary indicated that trade negotiations between China and the US are temporarily stalled, suggesting ongoing trade tensions may impact China's foreign trade [11] Chinese Strategy: Stock and Bond Market - The bond market experienced fluctuations, with short-term funding and sentiment driving volatility [12] - The A-share market showed resilience despite a slight decline, with limited catalysts for significant movement in the near term [12] - In the context of risk appetite, funds are shifting towards stable dividend sectors, while consumer sectors are relatively weaker [13]