端午消费：出行低于预期，“新”消费有亮点

Core Viewpoint - The overall travel growth during the Dragon Boat Festival was lower than expected, potentially impacted by heavy rainfall in southern regions. However, there were two notable highlights in consumption: traditional cultural experiences and "new" consumption trends, including the performing arts economy, outdoor sports, pet economy, and self-care consumption [2][4]. Group 1: Overall Travel - Travel data during the Dragon Boat Festival showed a low growth rate, with an expected cross-regional movement of 657 million people, representing a year-on-year increase of 3.0%, which is below the Ministry of Transport's forecast of 7.7% [11][12]. - The low travel growth may be attributed to heavy rainfall affecting travel and hospitality performance, similar to the impact seen during the May Day holiday in 2024 [12][4]. - Among different modes of transport, road passenger transport showed relatively higher growth at 3.14%, while rail, civil aviation, and water transport experienced lower growth rates of 2.3%, 1.22%, and -1.65% respectively [13][4]. Group 2: Structural Highlights - The consumption structure during the holiday revealed two main highlights: traditional cultural experiences and high growth in various "new" consumption sectors [5][15]. - Traditional cultural experiences, such as dragon boat races and folk performances, significantly boosted local tourism, with cities like Foshan seeing a 167% increase in tourism bookings [15][17]. - In the "new" consumption sector, the pet economy, outdoor sports, performing arts, and self-care consumption maintained high levels of activity. For instance, pet travel searches increased by 57.1%, and pet-friendly hotels saw a 30% price premium compared to regular hotels [15][16]. Group 3: Weekly Economic Observation - The Huachuang Macro WEI index rose to 6.31% as of May 25, indicating an upward trend driven mainly by infrastructure and durable goods consumption, particularly in passenger vehicle sales [6][19]. - Retail sales of passenger vehicles showed a recovery with a growth rate of 16.3% in the first 25 days of May, compared to 14.5% in April [22]. - Trade dynamics indicated a significant increase in freight rates on North American routes, with the West Coast route seeing a 57.9% increase week-on-week [32][33].