陆挺：对中国经济形势的中短期分析与政策建议

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese economy is expected to maintain a relatively good performance in the short term, primarily due to backlog orders in the export sector and the positive impact of the "trade-in" policy on retail [2][3][5]. Short-term Economic Analysis - In the next couple of months, China's export growth is likely to remain high, potentially close to April's 8% growth, driven by backlog orders and the upcoming trade negotiations [3][5]. - The GDP growth for the second quarter is projected to be around 4.8%, but challenges are anticipated in the second half of the year due to several factors [3][5]. - The increase in tariffs on Chinese products by the U.S. has risen by approximately 35 percentage points, significantly impacting exports, especially with the tariff on small packages rising to about 54% [5][6]. - The positive effects of the "trade-in" policies for durable goods are expected to diminish in the latter half of the year, leading to potential negative effects on consumption [6]. - The real estate sector, crucial for domestic demand, is in its fifth year of decline, with new housing starts down by 22% year-on-year, complicating efforts to stabilize domestic demand [6]. Policy Recommendations - The Chinese government has effectively intervened in the stock market and maintained the stability of the RMB against the USD, which is crucial for economic stability [9][10]. - Further fiscal policies should be considered to accelerate spending and debt issuance, especially in light of anticipated declines in export growth [10]. - Stabilizing the real estate market is critical, requiring measures beyond traditional tools like interest rate cuts, including allowing necessary bankruptcies and ensuring the completion of pre-sold properties [10][11]. - Structural reforms in the social security system are needed to enhance the income levels of the elderly, which could improve consumption capacity and alleviate burdens on migrant workers [11]. - Fiscal reform is essential to improve local government finances and create independent revenue sources beyond real estate, which is vital for enhancing the business environment and stimulating domestic demand [12].