国泰海通｜交运：关税政策影响持续，布局大宗增产周期——交运行业2025年中期策略之【航运行业】

Group 1: Shipping Industry - The core viewpoint highlights the ongoing impact of tariff policies and the need to monitor the restructuring and differentiation of shipping alliances. The past five years have seen two cycles of high prosperity, with an increase in profit margins. The sustainability of this prosperity will depend on tariff and economic expectations, especially as trade tensions escalate in the first half of 2025. The market is expected to face pressures from larger vessels and supply constraints, alongside ongoing trade friction, necessitating attention to the reshaping of global trade patterns [1]. - The dry bulk shipping sector is anticipated to see a gradual recovery in demand driven by iron ore production increases. The post-pandemic recovery is expected to lead to moderate growth in 2023-2024, but demand growth may taper off in the first half of 2025 due to production cuts in some steel mills. The global iron ore production cycle is beginning, particularly with the imminent launch of the West Simandou mega project, which could lead to demand exceeding expectations [1]. Group 2: Oil Shipping - The oil shipping sector is projected to benefit from increased crude oil production, which is favorable for demand, and has the potential for a downside option with falling oil prices. The market is expected to see an upward trend in prosperity from 2022 to the first half of 2024, with a significant rebound in freight rates due to a recovery in oil price levels and the escalation of sanctions on Iran. The supply of oil tankers remains rigid, and the oil shipping supply-demand balance is expected to continue improving over the next two years [1]. - The strategy maintains a bullish rating on oil shipping, emphasizing the potential for reverse layout opportunities. The profitability of oil shipping companies is expected to be robust, benefiting from the rising market conditions. Market expectations are at a low point, with dividend yields supporting valuation floors, making the risk-reward ratio attractive, especially in light of geopolitical situations that may present reverse opportunities [2].