蔚来：生死局已至，能否挺进决赛圈？

Core Viewpoint - NIO's Q1 2025 financial results were disappointing, but there are signs of marginal improvement in Q2, particularly in sales guidance and cost management [1][5]. Financial Performance - NIO's automotive revenue missed market expectations, with a unit revenue of ¥236,000, down ¥4,000 from the previous quarter, marking a historical low [1]. - The gross margin from vehicle sales fell to around 10%, primarily due to a decrease in unit price and a 42% drop in sales volume, leading to increased per-unit costs [1]. - Operating losses reached a near-historical high of ¥6.4 billion, missing market expectations by ¥700 million, largely due to uncut sales and administrative expenses [1]. Q2 Guidance - Q2 sales guidance is set at 72,000 to 75,000 units, indicating a potential increase in June sales to 25,000-28,000 units, which is crucial for NIO's survival [2]. - The revenue guidance for Q2 implies a slight recovery in unit price to ¥239,000, driven by the launch of the new model 5566, although it still falls short of market expectations [2]. - Cash on hand significantly decreased to ¥26 billion, down ¥15.9 billion from the previous quarter, primarily due to cash losses and repayment of interest-bearing liabilities [2][3]. Cash Flow and Financial Stability - NIO's net cash level is precarious, dropping to ¥9.3 billion, with less than a year of operational runway remaining without new financing [3]. - The company plans to raise HKD 4 billion in Q2, which, along with improved sales and reduced costs, may enhance cash flow [3]. Cost Management and Operational Adjustments - NIO is implementing significant cost-cutting measures, including layoffs of approximately 5,000 employees and merging sales channels to reduce expenses [5][6]. - The introduction of the self-developed NX9031 chip is expected to lower vehicle costs by ¥10,000 per unit, potentially increasing gross margins by 4 percentage points [5]. Product Pipeline and Market Position - NIO's upcoming models, including the L90 and L80, are positioned in the high-end market, but there are concerns about their ability to drive volume sales [10][11]. - The new model 5566 has limited upgrades, raising doubts about its competitiveness against rivals in terms of range and performance [8][12]. Investment Outlook - Despite the potential for marginal improvements in Q2, NIO is not considered a safe investment due to its cash constraints and slow adjustment pace [8][12]. - The company faces significant challenges in maintaining sales momentum and managing operational costs, with limited room for error moving forward [12].