黑色系反弹：申万期货早间评论-20250604

Group 1: Economic Outlook - OECD has revised down its global economic growth forecast for 2025 and 2026 to 2.9%, a decrease of 0.2 and 0.1 percentage points respectively from the previous March estimates [1] - The U.S. has increased tariffs on imported steel and aluminum from 25% to 50%, effective June 4, 2025, while maintaining the 25% tariff on imports from the UK [4] Group 2: Domestic Economic Indicators - China's Caixin Manufacturing PMI for May recorded at 48.3, a decline of 2.1 percentage points from April, marking the first drop below the critical point since October 2024 [5] Group 3: Commodity Market Insights - In the coal and coke market, there is a technical rebound due to unverified news, but the overall sentiment remains bearish with no clear reversal drivers [2][23] - The soybean meal market is experiencing weak performance due to trade concerns stemming from U.S. tariff increases, with domestic oil mills ramping up production leading to accelerated inventory accumulation [3][26] - The palm oil market is seeing a seasonal increase in supply, with exports rising by 7% to 11% in early May, but the overall supply-demand balance remains weak [3][24] Group 4: Financial Market Trends - U.S. stock indices showed an upward trend, with small-cap stocks performing particularly well, while domestic indices remain at low valuation levels, suggesting potential for medium to long-term investment [8] - The bond market is experiencing mixed movements, with the yield on 10-year government bonds rising to 1.676% amid a stable funding environment [9] Group 5: Metal Market Developments - Precious metals are experiencing upward pressure due to tariff concerns and geopolitical tensions, with market participants closely monitoring the outcomes of trade negotiations [15] - Copper prices are fluctuating due to mixed demand signals from various sectors, while zinc prices are also expected to experience volatility influenced by U.S. tariff developments [16][17] Group 6: Agricultural Products - The corn market is stable with tight supply, while cotton prices are under pressure due to weak downstream demand and uncertainties in export orders [27][28]