张瑜：过去两年对黄金的思考历程

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes a long-term bullish outlook on gold, driven by global order restructuring and geopolitical tensions, particularly in the context of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the end of the U.S. interest rate hike cycle [2][3]. Summary by Reports Report 1: Strategic Bullish on Gold (December 2023) - Gold has been trading around $2000 per ounce for nearly three years, with a key resistance at $2050. The report argues that the global order is likely undergoing significant changes, influenced by ongoing geopolitical conflicts and the waning effects of the pandemic [3]. Report 2: Unusual Pricing of Gold (May 2024) - By May 2024, gold prices reached $2400-$2500 per ounce, but traditional pricing models failed to explain this surge. The report highlights a divergence from historical pricing models, suggesting that non-traditional factors are now driving gold prices [4]. Report 3: Extreme Scenarios for Gold Prices (March 2025) - In March 2025, gold prices hit $3000 per ounce, with the report exploring five extreme scenarios that could further elevate gold prices. It argues that market perceptions of gold's potential are underestimating its tail risk in a restructuring global order [5]. Report 4: Gold Implicit Order Restructuring Index (May 2025) - Following a price increase to $3300-$3400 per ounce, the report introduces a new analytical tool to capture the portion of gold price movements not explained by traditional models. This index reflects investor expectations regarding the restructuring of global financial and political orders [6][7]. Current View on Gold - The current price surge in gold is seen as a reflection of expectations surrounding global order restructuring, drawing parallels to historical periods of upheaval. The company maintains a strategic bullish stance on gold, highlighting its value in reducing portfolio volatility [9].