港股这算不算牛市？

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the strong performance of the Hong Kong stock market, particularly focusing on three companies: Pop Mart, Lao Pu Gold, and Mixue Ice Cream, which have seen significant price increases and are considered the "three flowers" of the Hong Kong market [1][2][3]. Market Performance - The major indices of both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks are experiencing a comprehensive upward trend, with Pop Mart up 174%, Lao Pu Gold up 312%, and Mixue Ice Cream up 135% since the beginning of the year [1][2]. - The rapid rise in these stocks is attributed to the market's enthusiasm for new consumption and speculative trading, with quantitative funds now accounting for approximately 40% of A-share trading volume [3]. Financing and Interest Rates - The financing buy-in amount for A-shares indicates a strong interest in the pharmaceutical sector, which ranked first in the industry for the first time in a long while [4]. - The HIBOR overnight interest rate in Hong Kong has dropped to a historical low of 0.012%, significantly lower than the mainland's overnight rate of around 1.4% [7][8]. - The low HIBOR rate is a result of excess liquidity in the Hong Kong market, driven by substantial net inflows from mainland funds, totaling over 650 billion RMB this year [11]. Real Estate and Investment Environment - The low interest rates have led to a decrease in mortgage rates for Hong Kong residents, which are now below 2%, stabilizing the second-hand housing market [12]. - The current low interest rate environment is favorable for small-cap stocks and growth stock speculation, reminiscent of previous market conditions that led to significant bull runs [12]. Global Market Trends - The MSCI Global Index (excluding the US) has reached a historical high, indicating a rebound in global risk assets [20]. - Various countries are implementing proactive fiscal and monetary policies, which are beneficial for risk assets amid a backdrop of de-globalization [22]. Investment Recommendations - The article suggests that the current investment environment presents a high probability of profitability, especially for those not heavily invested in Chinese real estate or frequently chasing market trends [24]. - The focus should be on high-dividend sectors as a means to ensure continued profitability in the face of low interest rates [17].