早上刷到一条新闻，下图，14家头部的银行理财子公司，1月的规模掉了8000多亿，而这14家头部公司的规模，占理财行业总规模（25年末是33万亿+） 的75%左右，因此，线性外推，如果这个数据源本身没错的话， 全行业1月单月，规模应该掉了1万亿出头。 这1万亿的规模，绝对算是一个天量了，纵向对比来看： 2024年1月，银行理财规模降1200多亿； 而25年的1月，理财规模增加了约500亿。 换句话说，过去2年，即使1月有春节的扰动，开门红首月的理财规模都是比较稳定的，而今年1月，客户也没有赎回理财变现过节的诉求，因 此，这1万亿的赎回规模，隐藏着更多的线索。 答案 ，其实在12月底的《 2026年金融市场的十大预测 》，以及1月的《 银行理财要大变天了？ 》这两篇文章中，我们都已经点过了： " 理财子公司，最大的变化，就是 此前的 ' 留存收益 ' 基本释放完毕， ' 理财打榜 ' 的商业模式面临巨大的挑战 ，真正到了拼投研内功、拼顶层的 产品线布局、拼渠道服务能力的时候了。 在上述两个因子剧变的情况下， 咱们的结论是，理财行业的竞争格局，会发生天翻地覆的变化。 过去 20 年，银行理财的业绩基准，才是中国居民 ...

今晚本来已经写了1000多字了，结果央妈发布了四季度货政报告，也可以理解为是年度报告，太重要了，因此推倒重写，和大家聊聊。 完整版的解读，会发在星球里，在公众号里，提炼几个核心要点。 1、当下，财政与货币，处于最佳的"蜜月期" 。此前解释过，货政报告中，最值得学习的是每次的几篇专栏，从投资的角度看，本次主要值得细 读的是专栏1和专栏3，下图，其中，"财政金融协同"被放在第一篇，报告明确指出，货币政策起"间接激励作用"，财政政策起"直接激励作用"， 协调配合能有效放大整体的政策效能，这种协同，是一大幸事。 | 专栏 | | --- | | 传栏 财政金融协同支持扩内需 .. | | 专栏 2 持续提升绿色金融质效 服务经济社会绿色低碳转型 . | | 专栏 3 从资管产品与银行存款的合并视角看流动性总量 . . 26 | | 专栏 4 实施一次性信用修复政策 支持个人高效便捷重塑信用 | 2、保护银行净息差，是货币政策的核心目标 。继续强调，"降低银行负债成本，促进社会综合融资成本低位运行"，这意味着，目前整体的信贷 利率处于较为合意的水平，短期降息必要性不大，而银行的息差收窄速度虽然放缓，但压力仍在 ，后文会 ...

Group 1 - The core message of the article is the announcement of optimized refinancing measures by the three major exchanges, which is seen as a significant step in the ongoing structural reforms of the A-share market [1][2][3]. - The article emphasizes the importance of having confidence and patience in the current structural reforms of the A-share market, highlighting a clear top-level design framework and the unprecedented low interest rate environment as an optimal window for reform [5]. - The ultimate goal of the stock market is to promote the optimal allocation of resources in society and allow investors to share in the growth dividends of quality listed companies [6]. Group 2 - The article outlines several key investment considerations: 1. The long-term trend of differentiation in corporate operations, with a focus on identifying quality equity investments and recognizing the rise of Chinese industries as a global technology leader [6]. 2. The cyclical nature of financing policies, advising caution against speculative investments in smaller or poorer-performing stocks during the gradual exit of counter-cyclical policies [6]. 3. The unique aspect of the current refinancing policy optimization is the "full-process supervision," which will strictly control the allocation of raised funds [6]. 4. The measures are relatively favorable for Hong Kong stocks, indicating a potential balance in financing needs between A-shares and H-shares [6]. 5. Attention should be paid to changes in the supply-demand structure of convertible bonds in the medium term [6]. Group 3 - The market experienced a significant rebound, with most events already anticipated in previous analyses, including the rebound in the materials sector and the technology sector following the rise in US stocks [8][10]. - The Asia-Pacific region saw collective gains, with major indices in China, Japan, and South Korea rising over 4%, and A-shares driven by the solar and module sectors [10]. - The AI sector received additional momentum, with notable stock performances, such as a 36% increase in a specific AI stock since its listing [14][15]. Group 4 - The article discusses the rebound in the materials sector, particularly in precious metals, with A-shares in this sector rebounding over 2% despite a significant overall decline since the beginning of the adjustment period [20][23]. - The article notes the opening of a silver LOF after consecutive trading days of decline, indicating a significant trading volume and a high premium rate, suggesting speculative trading behavior [23]. - The article highlights the cyclical rotation in the market, suggesting a potential third phase involving energy sectors like oil and gas, based on historical patterns of asset rotation [28][30]. Group 5 - The article advises monitoring the movements of margin trading ahead of the Spring Festival, noting a significant net sell-off in margin trading over the past week [37][39]. - Historical data indicates that net selling in margin trading tends to increase in the last five trading days before the Spring Festival, suggesting a potential trend for the current year [39].

Group 1 - The article discusses the significant rebound in global markets, particularly in precious metals like gold and silver, and cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin, following a liquidity shock caused by the announcement of the new Federal Reserve chairperson [5][14]. - Silver has shown extreme volatility, with two instances of over 20% single-day declines in the past six trading days, followed by a rebound of over 21% from its low point [5][10]. - The article emphasizes the importance of long-term value in asset allocation, particularly highlighting gold as a stable investment choice for ordinary investors due to its clearer underlying logic and lower volatility [10][12]. Group 2 - The article notes a significant rebound in U.S. and Chinese stocks, with major indices like the Nasdaq and S&P 500 rising around 2%, and the Dow Jones reaching a historical high [15][16]. - Concerns remain regarding the capital expenditures of major tech companies, which have been a source of market anxiety, particularly in relation to their ability to generate sufficient returns [21][29]. - The article highlights the competitive landscape among internet giants in Hong Kong, with Alibaba and Tencent engaging in aggressive promotional activities, raising concerns about their spending and market positioning [25][26]. Group 3 - The article suggests that the upcoming Chinese New Year may lead to a surge in tourism, indicating potential investment opportunities in the service consumption sector [39][46]. - It mentions the increasing popularity of certain travel destinations during the holiday season, emphasizing the need for investors to focus on structural opportunities within the consumption sector [46][47]. - The article advises investors to monitor the recovery of consumer spending relative to pre-pandemic levels, particularly in terms of average transaction values [46].

第一条 ，有读者提到，"牛市里，50%的溢价并不高"——坦率说，这话有对的地方，因为目前的A股，有大量的票，其市值可能是其实际价值的 几倍，甚至几十倍，这也是一种"隐形"的溢价，即使是中芯国际这种大票，A股的定价也相对港股溢价超80%；但是，这话在此处并不合理，因 为基金的溢价是"明牌"，是显性的，是注定会被套利资金消灭的对象，以QDII-ETF为例，最火的时候，纳指相关的ETF人均小几十个点的溢价， 而现在呢？即使QDII额度常年不足，目前也只有1只美股ETF溢价还在10%以上，其他统统被打下来了。 第二条 ，下图，这种声音并不罕见，作为博主，我当然知道，和亏钱的散户站在一起，怼天怼地怼空气，能获得共情，有流量，但然后呢？我 获得了流量，但亏钱的人除了一时的快感，下次能避免再次亏钱吗？现实很残酷，但只有正面现实，未来才能更进一步，对普通投资者来说，最 核心的，就是不懂的东西不要碰，亏了钱之后参与集体的情绪宣泄狂欢，并不会让你把亏的钱赚回来。 昨晚的话题，大家讨论的比较激烈，我也放了一些留言出来，其中，有三条，我觉得挺典型的，和大家再聊几句——注意，仅仅是就事论事，引 申出去讨论下市场存在的一些现象而已。 第 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the recent trading behavior of the silver LOF fund, which has seen significant price drops despite high premiums, indicating speculative trading behavior among investors [1][2] - The silver LOF experienced a third consecutive day of trading at the limit down, with a transaction volume of 240 million, reflecting a willingness among investors to take risks in hopes of finding buyers to absorb losses [2] - The article highlights the disconnect between the performance of silver prices and the fund's price, suggesting that investors may not fully understand the risks involved [5][8] Group 2 - The article identifies three main negative factors affecting the A-share and H-share markets, starting with the impact of AI advancements leading to fears of disruption in traditional software business models [10][12] - The second negative factor is Tencent's internal conflict regarding the "Yuanbao" red envelope feature, which has led to a decline in its stock price and reflects broader concerns about competition in the tech space [16][18] - The third negative factor involves ongoing technological changes in the optical module sector, which has resulted in significant stock price drops for key players in the industry [26][28] Group 3 - The article notes a concerning trend in financing, with a potential for a fifth consecutive day of net selling, which could indicate a broader market cooling [31][33] - It emphasizes the potential impact of reduced retail trading activity on previously high-flying stocks and sectors, suggesting that a market downturn could lead to significant corrections [33] Group 4 - The article mentions market movements influenced by external factors, such as Elon Musk's comments and actions, which have led to fluctuations in stock prices within the solar energy sector [36][40] - It also discusses regulatory changes in the automotive industry, specifically the phasing out of hidden door handles, which could affect the resale value of vehicles equipped with this feature [44]

Group 1 - The article discusses the introduction of staggered paid leave for employees and spring and autumn breaks for students in Jiangsu, which may enhance family travel opportunities and boost service consumption [1][3] - The article highlights the potential impact of AI on employment, marking the first formal acknowledgment by the government in a document, indicating a need to address automation's effects on jobs [4][6] - The global asset market experienced a significant rebound, attributed to the temporary alleviation of liquidity shocks, with various asset classes showing recovery rates [17][20] Group 2 - The article notes a dramatic increase in the premium rate of silver LOF, which reached around 90%, indicating a speculative environment where investors are willing to buy despite risks [8][10] - It mentions the adjustment of valuation methods by a fund company, leading to a record single-day drop of over 30%, reflecting the challenges faced by certain investment products [10][12] - The article reports a surge in new fund accounts, with January seeing a more than 120% month-on-month increase, suggesting a strong influx of retail investors into the market [35][38] Group 3 - The article discusses the impact of recent regulatory announcements on the Hong Kong tech sector, leading to significant declines in stock prices [21][32] - It highlights the performance of various global markets, with the South Korean market showing the highest recovery rate after a significant drop [19][20] - The article mentions the ongoing interest in space solar power due to recent developments by SpaceX, indicating a growing trend in commercial space and AI integration [39]

" 今天晒一下（账户收益）的目的，还是想严肃地强调一下， 这种表现，显然是不可能持续，不可能持续，不可能持续的，重要的事情说三 遍。 " 尤其是对 A 股而言，在火热的开门红过后，往后看，剩余的 11 个月，投资的赔率进一步被压低，如果你前期基础仓位不够，但被当下市场的赚 钱效应吸引，想大幅提高仓位， 一定要确保 " 姿势是合理的 + 资金是长期的 + 心态是佛系的 " ，并同步做好中短期内赚不到什么钱，甚至被市场 小幅毒打的准备。 还是此前说的， 降低预期，稳步稳打，不急不躁，徐徐图之。 " 昨晚，咱们开篇提了一嘴： ...... 第一，金价跌幅创40年之最，白银从高点回落40%，流动性冲击加剧。 下图，是从上周一到今天15点，现货黄金、现货白银、以及GDX（美股的黄金股ETF，今晚预计大幅补跌），三者的走势图，今天，金价一度跌 超10%，创下最近40年的单日最大跌幅，而从周四的高点到今天的15点， 金价、银价，分别回调近20%、40% ，非常夸张。 只有杠杆资金等连环爆仓，才会在短时间内产生如此巨大的振幅。 所以昨晚，我们提到，要关注其衍生出的对全球资产的流动性冲击——不过，这种冲击，总归是短期的，A股收 ...

不知不觉，26年的1月已经过去了，我今天打开雪球账户一看，满仓投顾组合的情况下，收益已 经有去年8月的那种感觉了。 别人晒实盘，不管是P的还是真的，都是为了让你相信Ta做投资是真的牛； 我今天晒一下的目的，还是想严肃地强调一下，这种表现，显然是 不可能持续，不可能持续，不 可能持续的 ，重要的事情说三遍（此前也说过，在地区分散、均衡配置、多元资产的投资理念 下，能避过大坑，但也赚不到什么大钱）。 1、贵金属巨震后，产生了几个连锁反应——白银LOF，预计开启连续跌停。 接着昨天的《 当白银期货爆仓 》，说说贵金属大跌后的几个连锁反应。 第一，暴跌后，由于期货交易都是保证金模式， 如果波动率继续维持在高位， 很多账户爆仓的风险 会大幅增加，因此，芝加哥商品交易所， 紧急提高了黄金和白银期货的保证金比例 ，分别提高了2%、 4%左右，这是比较罕见的操作，可见波动的影响之大。 第二，要关注衍生出的 流动性冲击 ，在过去，都是股票等风险资产发生危机后，为了补仓或补保证 金，机构卖出黄金换取流动性，导致黄金同步下跌；而这回，黄金和白银本身成为危机本身，从而导致 全市场资产都"遭殃"。 我们看到，周五晚上，美股下跌，其中风 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the significant decline in precious metals, with gold dropping over 9% and silver over 26% in a single day [2][4] - Gold reached a historical high of $5598, experiencing a cumulative drop of nearly 13% from that peak, while silver peaked at $121.6, with a cumulative decline of nearly 30% [4] - The author emphasizes that gold should be viewed as a component of a diversified asset allocation strategy, serving as a hedge against dollar-denominated assets [6] Group 2 - The article warns against the dangers of leverage in trading, particularly in futures markets, where many investors faced significant losses due to the recent price drops [9][10] - It highlights the importance of maintaining a cautious mindset in investing, as overconfidence and chasing trends can lead to substantial losses [21][25] - The piece critiques the notion of relying on so-called "experts" or "gods" in investment, advocating for a balanced and rational approach to asset allocation instead [27][32] Group 3 - The article notes that the recent volatility in precious metals is part of a broader trend influenced by U.S. monetary policy and market dynamics, suggesting that the current environment may not be sustainable [14][36] - It stresses the need for investors to recognize the risks of excessive trading and the potential for market corrections following periods of rapid price increases [38] - The author concludes that a well-rounded investment strategy, which includes regional diversification and balanced asset allocation, is essential for long-term success [37][39]