不知不觉，26年的1月已经过去了，我今天打开雪球账户一看，满仓投顾组合的情况下，收益已 经有去年8月的那种感觉了。 别人晒实盘，不管是P的还是真的，都是为了让你相信Ta做投资是真的牛； 我今天晒一下的目的，还是想严肃地强调一下，这种表现，显然是 不可能持续，不可能持续，不 可能持续的 ，重要的事情说三遍（此前也说过，在地区分散、均衡配置、多元资产的投资理念 下，能避过大坑，但也赚不到什么大钱）。 1、贵金属巨震后，产生了几个连锁反应——白银LOF，预计开启连续跌停。 接着昨天的《 当白银期货爆仓 》，说说贵金属大跌后的几个连锁反应。 第一，暴跌后，由于期货交易都是保证金模式， 如果波动率继续维持在高位， 很多账户爆仓的风险 会大幅增加，因此，芝加哥商品交易所， 紧急提高了黄金和白银期货的保证金比例 ，分别提高了2%、 4%左右，这是比较罕见的操作，可见波动的影响之大。 第二，要关注衍生出的 流动性冲击 ，在过去，都是股票等风险资产发生危机后，为了补仓或补保证 金，机构卖出黄金换取流动性，导致黄金同步下跌；而这回，黄金和白银本身成为危机本身，从而导致 全市场资产都"遭殃"。 我们看到，周五晚上，美股下跌，其中风 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the significant decline in precious metals, with gold dropping over 9% and silver over 26% in a single day [2][4] - Gold reached a historical high of $5598, experiencing a cumulative drop of nearly 13% from that peak, while silver peaked at $121.6, with a cumulative decline of nearly 30% [4] - The author emphasizes that gold should be viewed as a component of a diversified asset allocation strategy, serving as a hedge against dollar-denominated assets [6] Group 2 - The article warns against the dangers of leverage in trading, particularly in futures markets, where many investors faced significant losses due to the recent price drops [9][10] - It highlights the importance of maintaining a cautious mindset in investing, as overconfidence and chasing trends can lead to substantial losses [21][25] - The piece critiques the notion of relying on so-called "experts" or "gods" in investment, advocating for a balanced and rational approach to asset allocation instead [27][32] Group 3 - The article notes that the recent volatility in precious metals is part of a broader trend influenced by U.S. monetary policy and market dynamics, suggesting that the current environment may not be sustainable [14][36] - It stresses the need for investors to recognize the risks of excessive trading and the potential for market corrections following periods of rapid price increases [38] - The author concludes that a well-rounded investment strategy, which includes regional diversification and balanced asset allocation, is essential for long-term success [37][39]

今天市场有回调，wind全A上午一度跌超2.5%，是去年11月中旬以来，最近2个半月，跌幅最大的一天了。 昨晚，咱们在《 白酒今天集体涨停的原因是啥？ 》里，在第五点，也提到了短期反转的可能性： " 从根本上来说，要看到， 市场可能有明确的避险，或者说再平衡需求 ... 2025 年以来，在美元降息 + 弱美元导向的趋势下，不管是黄金，还是非美市场的股票，尤其是新兴市场，都在快速走强 ... 问题来了，这一延续了大半年的趋势， 有无短期反转的可能性？ 一个理性的投资者，如果看到最近 2 个月如此夸张，比此前攀登了 101 大厦的 Alex Honnold 爬过的 犹他州酋长岩，还要陡峭的沪银期货的走势 ，会不会夹杂着一丝担忧？ 适度卖出一些小登，买入一些老登， 做一些资产的再平衡 ，保持均衡配置，有没有道理呢？ 如果我是险资的投资经理的话，我会选择这么做的 ......" 上面提到的Alex，就是大家短视频应该都刷到过的，这周无保护徒手攀登台北101大厦的攀岩大神，而他真正的封神之战，是无保护徒手攀登酋 长岩，下图，大概就是这种90度的悬崖，是不是和沪银期货走势挺像？ 对了，Alex正式攀登酋长岩之前，用绳索 ...

先说个题外话，今天公布了一个数字，下图，去年12月单月，全国彩票销售同比下降9.1%，而25年合计还是增长的，这意味着相对24年同期， 以及25年的1-11月，12月单月确实跌的很多且很猛。 与此同时， 25年12月A股的单月成交额 是43.26万亿，而24年12月同期是35.44万亿，同比增22%；而25年的1-11月的月均是34.2万亿，12月单月 相对前11个月的月均，环比增26.4%。 从以上这个数据对比中，你能得出什么结论？ 按照1月A股和贵金属的热度，咱们合理推测一下，1月彩票销售额同比、环比都会缩得比较厉害。 ...... 说回今天的A股——今天最靓的仔，有且仅有一个，就是被万众投资者"diss"的 白酒 。 我们用几张图，带大家聊聊今天的白酒，也试图复盘一下，大批量涨停背后的过程和逻辑。 第一张。 下图， 中证白酒一共18个成分股，今天除了茅台，全部涨停 ，这就意味着，买盘是以指数产品、或者指数形式，进行了大规模的扫货式买入，以至于雨 露均沾，集体涨停。 而茅台之所以没涨停，还是体量的问题，今日这18个票合计成交600亿出头，而茅台单只成交额就超过260亿，占比接近一半，这意味着，这笔突然涌入 ...

昨晚的文章无了，但市场解读相关的文字和图片，已经汇总发在了星球和表韭投顾持有人群里，如还未入群的伙伴，可以参考公众号菜单栏的入 口。 另外，很高兴地收到了Qeubee颁发的一个年度奖项 （在没有拉票，且没有想唱空但为了奖项继续唱多的背景下） ，很多人喜欢把债券和股票视作二元对立的关 系，但事实上，两者是多资产环境的有机组成部分，咱们最近2年，持续分享的主线就是，重视前所未有的低利率环境，拥抱优质股权投资的大 时代，在《 2026十大预测 》里，也提到： " 前所未有的低利率环境继续 —— 和 2025 年一样，我们观察债券的走势，本质上是 ' 春江水暖鸭先知 ' ，通过利率的变化，掌握融资需求和经济 增速的变化， 理解利率对股市估值的影响，从而对权益资产的仓位、方向等，做出调整。 " 往后，本账号会继续为大家分享理性、有益的信息，再次感谢CCTV、MTV、 Channel V 把这个奖颁给我。 蟹蟹！ 这篇文章，比平时多1000多字，建议收藏、分享，慢慢看。 2026年1月还剩2个交易日，我们1月6日在《 史上最强开门红？ 》提到的"史上最强"，也基本见了分晓——1月，在宽基ETF累计卖出超过7000亿 的背 ...

微博里刷到下面这条，本来以为是个假新闻，因为其提到白银兑付缺口1.2万吨，按目前的银价换算之后，价值小几万亿人民币，这显然离谱到 姥姥家了。 大概是这么个事，具体，大家等后面的官方信息吧。 这事给我们的教训就是： 不过，我又通过几个方式交叉验证了一下，近期，深圳这个"杰我睿"事件本身是真的， 受害者主要是在小红书上， 发酵的比较厉害（大家可以 自己搜），根据受害者自己统计，金额可能确实上百亿了。 事情略复杂，简单来说，核心是两层。 第一层，这家公司，通过贵金属相关的"小恩小惠"，营造出让客户薅羊毛、占便宜的氛围， 形成了一个巨大的资金池 ——比如，我们知道，如 果手里有多个旧金饰，然后想去融起来，打造一块新的，那么，就得付加工费，但这家公司说，我"零工费"帮大家打，于是，很多人会把手里的 黄金，邮寄给该公司，黄金就沉淀下来了；另外，这公司和客户说，搞活动，现在黄金市场价1100/g，但在我这儿买，今天1080/g，比市场价 低，让利给家人们，于是，又有人打钱过来，现金也沉淀了以来，最终黄金+现金，形成一个巨大的资金池。 第二层，这公司还设"私盘"（类似小型赌场）， 在平台里，客户可以做多或者做空黄金/白银 ， ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the recent performance of the A-share market, highlighting three main hotspots, including a collective drop in popular sectors such as commercial aerospace, AI applications, and humanoid robots [6][7] - It emphasizes the risk of rapid style switching in the market, where certain high-temperature sectors may face significant declines if funds abandon them [7][8] - The article notes that the current influx of capital is primarily through sector funds and index funds, which complicates the process of value discovery within the same sector [8][11] Group 2 - The article mentions a significant drop in the stock prices of leading companies in the aerospace sector, such as Aerospace Electronics and China Satellite, indicating a broader trend of declining valuations in the sector [9][11] - It highlights the recent high trading volumes of ETFs, suggesting that market activity remains strong despite the overall downturn in certain sectors [14] - The article points out that gold and silver have seen substantial price increases, with gold prices surpassing $5,000 and silver showing a year-to-date gain of over 50% [19][20][22] Group 3 - The article discusses Tencent's potential strategic moves in the Hong Kong market, particularly in AI applications, as the company aims to enhance its market share through user engagement [29][33] - It notes that the overall performance of the Hong Kong stock market is influenced by external factors, including declines in the Japanese and U.S. markets [29][31] - The article emphasizes the importance of maintaining a balanced investment strategy in the current market environment, particularly in light of the recent volatility in high-temperature sectors [37]

Group 1 - The article discusses the significant gap in football performance between China and Japan, highlighting that despite China's U23 team reaching the finals, they ultimately lost by a large margin, indicating a persistent disparity in football development [1][2][3] - The article attributes the differences in football success to factors such as "football culture," "population base," and the overall system from youth training to professional leagues, suggesting that China's football infrastructure is lagging behind [3][4] - The article mentions Dalian as a positive example of a city with a strong football culture and training system, producing over 200 national team players, but notes that such examples are rare in China [3] Group 2 - The article highlights recent market movements, particularly a significant drop in the CPO and GPU sectors due to poor earnings reports and a sell-off in commercial aerospace stocks [8] - Upcoming events to watch include the Federal Reserve's January decision, earnings reports from major tech companies, and the release of January PMI data in China [9] - The article outlines several risks in the market, including a notable penalty against a well-known trading firm for market manipulation and warnings from commercial aerospace companies about potential stock price volatility [10][13][22] Group 3 - The article discusses the outflow of funds from broad-based ETFs, indicating a shift in market sentiment, with a total of 5,600 billion yuan sold from these ETFs over a recent period [31][32] - It notes that while broad-based ETFs are seeing significant outflows, industry-specific ETFs are experiencing net inflows, suggesting a structural shift in investment preferences [33][36] - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding these fund flows as a means to gauge market trends and investor sentiment [31][39] Group 4 - The article expresses confidence in the long-term prospects for quality equity investments in China, citing ongoing improvements in market mechanisms and regulatory frameworks [41][42] - It points out the current low interest rate environment as a positive factor for equity valuations, with average returns on financial products dropping below 2% [44] - The article compares the performance of China's A50 index with India's SENSEX30 index, suggesting that despite competition, China's structural advantages remain strong [48][50]

Market Overview - The market is currently experiencing a situation of short-term liquidity excess, with the micro-cap stock index continuously reaching new highs compared to the declining performance of the Shanghai 50 index, indicating a combination of liquidity surplus and structural cooling [22][25]. - The financing market has shown signs of recovery, with net buying returning after two consecutive days of net selling, which aligns with historical patterns observed since the 924 market [15][18]. Company Cases - Liou Co., which had a significant funding order of over 10 billion, continued to hit the limit down, with the sell order value decreasing from over 100 billion to around 80 billion due to market conditions [4][5]. - Guosheng Technology, which previously faced five consecutive limit downs, experienced a dramatic turnaround, hitting the limit down in the morning and then reaching the limit up in the afternoon [5][6]. - Xunwei Communication saw a significant price increase of 10% due to a rumor about a large order with SpaceX, which was later debunked, yet the stock price remained unaffected [9][11]. ETF and Fund Trends - The wide-based ETFs have seen net selling exceeding 100 billion, with cumulative net selling surpassing 410 billion since last Thursday, indicating a significant outflow of capital [18][19]. - The chemical sector has gained increased attention from fund managers, with notable inflows into chemical ETFs, reflecting a growing interest in this sector [34][35]. Future Market Strategies - The market may implement various strategies to address the current liquidity situation, including enhancing short-selling mechanisms, accelerating the pace of share reductions, and managing the current internet trading practices [27][28]. - The overall sentiment suggests a cautious approach towards investment, emphasizing the importance of quality equity investments and maintaining a balanced portfolio [30][31].

上周五的竞猜结果，我贴在文末，一共40位小伙伴获奖哈 ，记得看一下，大家在《 今天先提前吹个牛X 》里，贡献了2000多条留言，都是过去 一年学到的最有用的财富知识，我逐条认真看过了，也建议个人投资者朋友都去看看，很有意思——让投资者把这些东西主动讲出来，堪称最佳 投教范本了，属于可以珍藏的社会调查资料 。 俺也非常开心，在大家的留言里，提到了不少本账号对大家的启发和帮助，作为一名内容博主，能传递给大家一些健康的投资观，以及理性的分析事物的 视角，并陪同大家在优质股权投资的大时代，获得一些合意的收获，一直是咱们的核心目标。 ...... 聊下今天市场的热点，有非常刺激的东西。 第一，干爆了，500多亿流通市值的票，超过100亿资金封住跌停板。 今天的主角，叫 利欧股份 ，这是这轮炒"AI应用"的妖股之一，下图，是其从12月初以来的走势图，其股价从12月31日开始启动，随后短短十个 交易日，累计涨幅超过100%。 最为离谱的是，在股价最高点的1月15日（也即启动降温的上周四），其单日成交超过250亿（紫色柱子是逐日的成交额），要知道，其总市值也 就几百亿， 单日的换手率接近44% ，也即公司接近一半的筹码进行了 ...