国泰海通｜“潮起东方，新质领航”2025中期策略会观点集锦（上）——总量、周期

Macro - The global economic system is undergoing reconstruction due to changes in the trust foundation, leading to a gradual "de-dollarization" primarily driven by non-economic factors, particularly international relations [2] - The long-term bull market for gold is expected to be historical and significant, as the trend of declining trust among countries is unlikely to change [2] - In the short to medium term, attention should be paid to the potential decline in dollar credit and the risks of rising real interest rates and inflation expectations in the US [2][3] Strategy - The "transformation bull" market in China's stock market is becoming clearer, with a strategic outlook favoring 2025 [6] - Key drivers include the decline in risk-free rates and a systemic reduction in risk perception, which will help restore investor confidence [6] - Investment opportunities are emerging in sectors such as financials, emerging technologies, and cyclical consumption, with specific recommendations for stocks in these areas [7][8] Overseas Strategy - The Hang Seng Technology Index is expected to lead the market, driven by the AI industry cycle [11] - The fundamentals of Hong Kong's tech sector are improving, with strong growth in capital expenditure and cloud business revenues [12] - Despite uncertainties in the trade environment, domestic policy support is expected to drive fundamental recovery in the Hong Kong market [13] Fixed Income - The bond market is expected to experience a bull market due to supply-demand mismatches, with low interest rates driving demand for convertible bonds [34] - Strategies focusing on short-term interest rates are recommended, with an emphasis on maintaining duration without chasing long-term bonds [29] Real Estate - The real estate market is showing signs of recovery, with improving supply-demand dynamics in key cities and a narrowing of cumulative declines post-policy adjustments [41] - The industry is expected to benefit from a clearer policy direction and a supportive environment for first-time homebuyers [41] Construction Engineering - The construction sector is focusing on high-dividend central state-owned enterprises and technology transformation [48] - Significant growth is anticipated in sectors such as intelligent computing and low-altitude economy development [48][49] Utilities - The electricity market is expected to see a bottoming out of spot prices, with both valuation and performance improving [53] - The nuclear power sector is projected to grow significantly, with a forecast of 110 million kilowatts of installed capacity by 2030 [54] Transportation - The aviation industry is entering a low-growth supply era, with demand expected to drive ticket prices upward [57] - The highway sector is anticipated to maintain strong demand, with policies likely to enhance long-term investment value [60]