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热点思考 | 失业保险,如何更好保障失业群体?(申万宏观·赵伟团队)
赵伟宏观探索·2025-06-04 14:29

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of China's unemployment insurance system and how it can be improved to better support unemployed individuals through a closed-loop system of "ensuring livelihood, promoting training, and assisting employment" [1] Group 1: Current State of Unemployment Insurance System - The unemployment insurance fund primarily consists of insurance premiums and plays a significant role in counter-cyclical adjustment, with expenditures increasing by 22.4% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2024 [2][9] - The fund's income is mainly derived from unemployment insurance premiums, with 89.5% of income from 2018 to 2023 coming from employer and employee contributions [2][18] - Expenditures focus on basic living guarantees for unemployed individuals, such as unemployment benefits and medical insurance fee payments, which accounted for 32% and 8% of total expenditures from 2018 to 2023, respectively [2][24] Group 2: Challenges Faced by the Unemployment Insurance System - The coverage rate of unemployment insurance in China exceeded 50% in 2023, but the coverage for key groups such as migrant workers remains significantly low, with only 19% of new flexible employment positions covered by social insurance [4][33] - The beneficiary rate of unemployment insurance has been below 5% overall, with only 3% in 2023, indicating that less than 15% of the unemployed population benefits from the insurance [4][39] - Some regions face significant pressure on the balance of unemployment insurance funds, with 9 regions having a sustainability period of less than 24 months in 2023 [5][48] Group 3: International Experience in Unemployment Insurance Policies - International unemployment insurance systems can be categorized into four types: mandatory unemployment insurance, non-mandatory unemployment insurance, unemployment relief, and dual unemployment insurance systems [6][74] - Germany's dual unemployment insurance mechanism combines unemployment insurance and unemployment relief, covering over 90% of the workforce, while Japan also has a dual system with substantial fiscal support for unemployment policies [7][65] - The U.S. system features a federal-state dual structure with flexible tax rates based on employers' historical layoff records, incentivizing job stability [7][71] Group 4: Recommendations for Improvement - To enhance the effectiveness of the unemployment insurance system, it is recommended to expand coverage, especially for new employment forms, and to improve the beneficiary rate by optimizing application conditions [7][75] - Implementing a model of "experience-rated" premiums could allow for localized adjustments, increasing policy flexibility [7][75] - Gradually establishing a dual system of "basic insurance + unemployment relief" could provide better financial support for long-term unemployed individuals [7][75]