59元的盲盒，其实是“低成本多巴胺”？

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses how consumer behavior has shifted towards seeking emotional value in low-cost purchases during economic downturns, with products like blind boxes, milk tea, and gold jewelry fulfilling this need for identity and social signaling [1][2][4]. Group 1: Emotional Value and Consumer Behavior - In a deflationary environment, consumers are increasingly focused on the emotional value derived from their spending, seeking low-cost, high-visibility purchases that provide immediate gratification [1][2]. - Products like Pop Mart's blind boxes leverage gambling psychology, offering low-cost dopamine hits that substitute for traditional financial returns [4][5]. - The rise of brands like Milk Tea and Old Gold highlights a trend where consumers prioritize affordable status symbols that allow for social signaling without significant financial burden [5][6]. Group 2: Mechanisms of Addiction and Reward - The article explains the neuroscience behind variable rewards, emphasizing that dopamine acts as a "prediction error" amplifier, making unpredictable rewards more addictive [6][12]. - Behavioral economics concepts such as the near-miss effect and sunk cost fallacy contribute to consumers' continued engagement with low-cost gambling-like products [7][14]. - The "dopamine loop" is described as a cycle where cues trigger actions that lead to variable rewards, reinforcing the desire for repeated engagement [8][10]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Trends - The macroeconomic context shows a decline in traditional investment returns, pushing consumers towards low-stakes gambling as a means of achieving emotional satisfaction [13][15]. - The article notes that the emotional gap created by scarce rewards leads to increased risk-seeking behavior, with consumers willing to spend small amounts for the chance of a larger reward [14][15]. - The design of products like Labubu capitalizes on high variance and social media compatibility, enhancing their appeal and market presence [18][19]. Group 4: Regulatory Considerations - The article anticipates regulatory measures such as probability disclosures and spending limits for youth, which could impact the growth of the blind box market [20]. - The potential for market volatility is highlighted, as the success of these products is sensitive to changes in reward variance and regulatory scrutiny [21]. Group 5: Long-term Implications - The article concludes that while high-frequency dopamine models can yield short-term profits, they risk undermining long-term cognitive engagement and focus [22]. - Successful business models must evolve from exploiting human weaknesses to fostering positive habits and network effects that create sustainable value [22].