世界环境日特辑｜淡水泉：解码气候风险时代的投资必修课与可持续实践

Core Viewpoint - Climate risk has evolved from a marginal issue to a central theme in the global economy and investment landscape, reshaping industry structures and capital flows [4][6]. Group 1: Physical Risks - Physical risks refer to the direct impacts of extreme weather events and long-term trends caused by climate change on the economy and society. For instance, Europe experienced a 2.4°C increase in average temperature over the past five years, with 2024 projected to be the hottest year on record, leading to significant economic losses [6][10]. - Asia faces severe challenges as well, with India experiencing unprecedented heatwaves in 2024, resulting in a 15% reduction in food production, and the Pacific island nation of Tuvalu facing existential threats due to rising sea levels [6][10]. Group 2: Transition Risks - Transition risks arise from changes in policies, technologies, markets, and perceptions associated with the shift to a low-carbon economy. For example, the Dutch court mandated a local energy company to reduce emissions by 45% over ten years, or face substantial fines [7][10]. - The shift in consumer preferences towards green products has led to a decline in demand for fossil fuel vehicles, while companies with poor environmental performance risk losing public trust [7][10]. Group 3: Challenges to the Paris Agreement - The Paris Agreement aims to limit the global average temperature increase to below 2°C compared to pre-industrial levels, with efforts to restrict it to 1.5°C. However, the current trajectory shows a 1.55°C increase, with extreme weather events becoming more frequent, posing significant threats to ecosystems and human society [10][11]. - The gap between current greenhouse gas emissions and the reductions needed to meet the 1.5°C target is substantial, necessitating immediate and stronger measures to mitigate climate change [10][11]. Group 4: Impact on Financial Markets - Climate risk has become a crucial factor in financial market pricing, with physical risks affecting infrastructure and corporate operations, thereby increasing credit risk. Transition risks lead to the depreciation of high-carbon assets, exacerbating market volatility [11][13]. - Investors are shifting their risk preferences towards low-carbon sectors, further amplifying market instability through capital reallocation [11][13]. Group 5: Global Actions - Policy initiatives are driving the global race towards carbon neutrality, with China’s carbon market covering approximately 4.5 billion tons of CO2 emissions, the largest globally. The U.S. Inflation Reduction Act allocates $369 billion to energy security and climate initiatives, while the EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) imposes additional tariffs on carbon-intensive imports [14][16]. - The renewable energy sector is witnessing significant growth, with investments in renewables surpassing fossil fuels for the first time globally. In Europe, renewable energy generation is expected to account for 45% of total generation in 2024 [16][17]. Group 6: Chinese Listed Companies - Domestic regulations are tightening, with stock exchanges enhancing ESG disclosure rules, compelling companies to establish climate risk management systems and improve sustainability capabilities [18][19]. - International compliance challenges arise from the EU's CBAM and U.S. SEC requirements for climate risk disclosures, necessitating companies to develop low-carbon management systems to convert compliance pressures into competitive advantages [18][19]. Group 7: Asset Management Institutions - Climate risk has increased uncertainty in asset pricing, with physical risks potentially leading to asset impairments and transition risks affecting high-carbon industries. Regulatory pressures are rising, requiring institutions to integrate climate factors into their risk management frameworks [20][21]. - The low-carbon transition presents strategic opportunities for asset management firms, with a focus on high-growth sectors such as renewable energy and green transportation, allowing for early positioning in key industry segments [20][21]. Group 8: Climate Risk Management Framework - The Task Force on Climate-related Financial Disclosures (TCFD) provides a systematic methodology for institutions to manage climate risks, emphasizing the need for board-level integration of climate issues into strategic decision-making [22][23]. - The ISSB standards released in 2023 build upon TCFD principles, enhancing requirements for emissions disclosures and climate resilience analysis, pushing climate information disclosure from voluntary guidelines to mandatory standards [22][23]. Group 9: Practical Applications by Asset Management Firms - The firm has integrated climate risk management into its investment processes, utilizing ESG ratings and carbon emissions data to monitor investment portfolios and conduct climate scenario analyses [25][26]. - Engaging with listed companies on climate risk and sustainability issues, the firm aims to assist in developing climate risk management systems and seizing opportunities during the transition [25][26]. - The firm has joined global initiatives to promote responsible investment practices, sharing experiences and participating in standard-setting to foster a resilient sustainable investment ecosystem [25][26].