Springs Capital 淡水泉投资 用热爱传遍美好 淡水泉投资祝您新年快乐！ ...

重要提示：本材料不构成淡水泉任何形式的要约、承诺或其他法律文件，亦非任何投资、法律或财务等方面的专业建议。过往业绩不预示未来表现。投资须谨慎。 2025年12月 淡水泉 月度观点，投资人和合作伙伴请点击左下角"阅读原文"了解详细内容。 获取详细内容 ...

重要提示：本材料不构成淡水泉任何形式的要约、承诺或其他法律文件，亦非任何投资、法律或财务等方面的专业建议。过往业绩 不预示未来表现。投资须谨慎。 在全球新兴产业发展与能源转型浪潮下，电力，这一曾经容易被忽视的隐形基础设施，正日益成为影响 各国产业竞争力的显性变量。 从美国旧金山近期的大规模停电，到德国等传统工业国、越南等新兴经济体频发的缺电事件，全球范围 内的用电挑战已对工业生产构成冲击。 当世界多地频频为"电"所困时，中国却成功实现了"电力自由"，这将给中国企业带来怎样的竞争优势？ "电力自由"带来的成本红利 2019年以来， 全球平均电价持续上行且波动加剧，表明电力市场开始进入到不稳定的时代 。究其原 因，一方面在于电源侧投资不足，比如对天然气、石油等单一电源过度依赖，导致能源价格波动带动电 价上涨；另一方面也与电网设施长期老化、调节能力下降有关。 来源：万得、华泰研究、淡水泉投资，截至2025年6月。 从能源优势到产品走向世界的竞争力 在全球能源成本高企与供应稳定性不足的背景下， 稳定、低成本的电力供应已成为高耗能、重资产工 业品维持全球竞争优势的重要因素 。这类工业品多属于流程型工业，需 24 小时连 ...

重要提示：本材料不构成淡水泉任何形式的要约、承诺或其他法律文件，亦非任何投资、法律或财务等方面的专业建议。过往业绩 不预示未来表现。投资须谨慎。 过去十几年，A股市场在岁末年初通常会呈现这样一个现象：基于对新一年经济、政策或行业的预期， 市场资金流入增加，交易趋于活跃，风险偏好抬升，进而酝酿一段上涨行情，这一现象被称为跨年行 情。 从历史数据看，跨年行情在时间维度和资产表现风格上呈现不同的特征。跨年行情通常集中在上年12月 至次年3、4月之间，中间跨越春节、两会这两个重要的时间节点。行情延续时间长短不一，强弱也各有 不同。统计2010年至2025年跨年行情可以看到，主要指数在12月至次年2月期间的上涨概率逐步上升， 背后的主要因素可能在于，2月份通常是春节所在月份，市场受到春节前后积极情绪以及春节后至两会 前政策博弈的推动。 | | 上证指数 | 沪深300 | 中证500 | 中证1000 | 创业板指 | 万得全A | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 12月 | 47% | ୧୦% | 40% | 27% | 33% | 40% | | 1月 | ...

Springs Capital 淡水泉投资 用热爱传遍美好 弘扬宪法精神 筑牢法治根基 2025年宪法宣传周 ngs Capital 淡水泉投资 VA 重要声明：过往业绩不预示未来表现,投资须谨慎。本资料不是宣传推介材料,也 不构成关于任何证券、资管产品、投资服务或其他交易的要约、要约邀请或推荐， 亦非任何法律、财务、税务、投资等方面的专业建议。本资料的接收方不应仅基于 本资料作出任何判断,而应依赖其自身独立分析或征询第三方的专业意见。本资料 的版权归淡水泉所有。未经淡水泉事先书面许可，接收方不得披露、复制、摘编、 引用、改写本资料,亦不得以转载、转发等形式将本资料的全部或者部分提供给任 何未经淡水泉许可的第三方。 PERSONAL r range 111111 r 1 .. . . . . . . ....... T PERCE 11111 TITLE ...

重要提示：本材料不构成淡水泉任何形式的要约、承诺或其他法律文件，亦非任何投资、法律或财务等方面的专业建议。过往业绩 不预示未来表现。投资须谨慎。 2025年临近尾声，投资者的目光已开始投向2026年。2026年是"十五五"规划的开局之年，中国股票市场 将面临怎样的宏观环境与产业风向？哪些资产有望成为明年的投资主线？ 外资观点历来是观测市场方向的一个风向标。近期，多家外资机构相继发布了对中国宏观经济与资本市 场的年度展望。其中一个普遍共识是，2026年政策仍将持续发力，以营造稳定向好的宏观环境，但中国 股票市场定价的逻辑将发生变化。 宏观："稳增长"与结构"再平衡" 宏观层面，外资机构普遍预期 ，2026年的宏观政策将以"稳增长"和结构"再平衡"为主。 经济增长目标 预计维持在5%左右，以保障"十五五"实现平稳开局。增长动力上，出口有望继续保持韧性，消费与投 资在政策支持下逐步回稳，房地产对经济的拖累料将继续减轻。 相较于总量增长，通胀指标的变化更值得关注。 市场对明年通胀回升带动名义GDP改善已形成共识， 但对GDP平减指数（反映价格水平变动）转正时点仍有分歧。这主要源于两大不确定性：一是宏观政策 的支持力度 ...

Springs Capital 淡水泉投资 用热爱传遍美好 弘扬宪法精神 筑牢法治根基 ngs Capital 淡水泉投资 VA 重要声明：过往业绩不预示未来表现,投资须谨慎。本资料不是宣传推介材料,也 不构成关于任何证券、资管产品、投资服务或其他交易的要约、要约邀请或推荐， 亦非任何法律、财务、税务、投资等方面的专业建议。本资料的接收方不应仅基于 本资料作出任何判断,而应依赖其自身独立分析或征询第三方的专业意见。本资料 的版权归淡水泉所有。未经淡水泉事先书面许可，接收方不得披露、复制、摘编、 引用、改写本资料,亦不得以转载、转发等形式将本资料的全部或者部分提供给任 何未经淡水泉许可的第三方。 PERSONAL r range 111111 r 1 .. . . . . . . ....... T PERCE 11111 TITLE 2025年宪法宣传周 ...

重要提示：本材料不构成淡水泉任何形式的要约、承诺或其他法律文件，亦非任何投资、法律或财务等方面的专业建议。过往业绩不预示未来表现。投资须谨慎。 2025年11月 淡水泉 月度观点，投资人和合作伙伴请点击左下角"阅读原文"了解详细内容。 获取详细内容 ...

Core Insights - Kevin Kelly's new book "2049: The Possibilities of the Next 10,000 Days" presents a forward-looking vision of technology and society's deep integration over the next 25 years [3][17] - The concept of a "Mirror World" is introduced, which envisions a digital twin universe that corresponds entirely with the real world, allowing for immersive experiences and enhanced human interaction with technology [4][6] Mirror World: The Rise of the Next Generation Internet - The "Mirror World" will enable users to interact with a digital representation of reality, where smart glasses will replace most smartphones and serve as the primary interface [6] - This new internet will facilitate an explosion of user-generated content (UGC) and immersive experiences, transforming traditional activities like reading into interactive experiences [6] AI Era: Coexistence of Humans and Technology - The primary principle of interacting with AI is to not view it as human; the focus should be on developing specialized AI (ACI) rather than pursuing general AI (AGI) [9] - The collaboration between humans and machines will lead to a symbiotic relationship where machines enhance efficiency while humans drive innovation [9] AI Assistants: 24/7 Digital Companions - By 2049, everyone is expected to have a personal AI assistant that can manage various roles, from medical advisor to career consultant, enhancing daily life [10] - The concept of "Bot to Bot" (B2B) communication will allow AI assistants to interact directly, streamlining tasks and improving efficiency [10] Impact of AI on Future Society - AI will lead to flatter organizational structures in companies, with many managerial tasks being automated, resulting in a dual existence of large corporations and "one-person companies" [13] - The educational landscape will shift towards personalized learning experiences, emphasizing human traits like curiosity and creativity rather than merely training workers [13][14] Healthcare Transformation - The development of digital twins based on personal data will revolutionize personalized medicine, while AI will facilitate remote healthcare services [14] - The integration of AI in healthcare will reduce reliance on experienced surgeons and reshape service delivery models [14] Building an Optimistic Future - Kelly emphasizes that the future is not a passive fate but a construct of possibilities, advocating for a "protopia" where gradual progress is valued over perfection [17] - The unique human qualities of curiosity, creativity, empathy, and critical thinking will become essential competitive advantages in a world increasingly dominated by technology [17]

Core Viewpoint - The increasing demand for computing power in the U.S. is leading to a significant electricity shortage, creating both challenges and investment opportunities in energy infrastructure development [3][4]. Group 1: Electricity Supply and Demand Imbalance - The electricity crisis in the U.S. is a structural issue stemming from a long-term supply-demand imbalance, particularly highlighted by the mismatch between grid construction cycles and the rapid growth in computing power demand [4][5]. - The U.S. electricity reliability organization (NERC) predicts that data centers will add 65GW of load by 2030, but actual demand driven by computing power could reach 180GW in five years, nearly three times the official forecast [5]. - The aging power generation infrastructure is unable to quickly compensate for the electricity shortfall, with a mere 1.23% annual growth rate in operational generators over the past decade [9]. Group 2: Grid Infrastructure Challenges - The fragmented nature of the U.S. power grid, operated by thousands of entities, complicates cross-regional electricity distribution and upgrades, leading to increased risks of regional blackouts [11][12]. - The average age of grid equipment in the U.S. exceeds 30 years, limiting the ability to respond to surges in demand effectively [12]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities - Despite rising electricity costs, U.S. data centers maintain a strong commitment to power investments, presenting opportunities for Chinese companies to leverage their supply chain advantages in the global market [15]. - The global trend of upgrading electricity infrastructure is evident, with significant investment opportunities across generation, transmission, and distribution sectors, particularly for Chinese power equipment firms [15]. - The U.S. electricity crisis is expected to drive demand for gas turbines, energy storage solutions, and distributed microgrid construction, benefiting Chinese manufacturers with competitive advantages [16].