重要提示：本材料不构成淡水泉任何形式的要约、承诺或其他法律文件，亦非任何投资、法律或财务等方面的专业建议。过往业绩 不预示未来表现。投资须谨慎。 今年3月，全球科技产业迎来两场重量级盛会：在加州圣何塞举行的被称为"AI领域超级碗"的英伟达 GTC大会，以及在洛杉矶举办的全球光通讯行业OFC大会。这两个会议传递哪些行业趋势？又将如何影 响AI产业的发展？ 01 AI算力：从"训练"到"推理"的转向 2022年以来，在生成式AI爆发初期，大模型的演进主要聚焦于"训练"阶段，即让大模型"学会知识"。而 随着模型训练日趋完善并逐步投入应用，2025年以来，算力负荷的重心开始向"推理"转移，即让训练好 的模型"运用知识"更好的生成内容。 来源： NVIDIA GTC 2026。 这一转向直接重构了算力硬件的需求逻辑与优化方向。训练阶段侧重"算力+通信全方位堆叠"，以突破 模型性能上限，推理阶段则追求"效率提升带来用量和性价比提升"，核心瓶颈转向通信效率与存储适 配，这也推动算力硬件从"更依赖算力"向"更依赖通信和存储"升级 。 存储配套 来源： NVIDIA GTC 2026。 架构优化 架构优化主要集中在两个方面：一 ...

近期中东地缘局势持续升级，美伊对峙加剧导致霍尔木兹海峡航运受阻，全球资本市场迎来不确定性扰 动。在此背景下， 如何看待中国资产表现 ？地缘冲击过后，市场关注点可能将发生哪些变化？ 01 重要提示：本材料不构成淡水泉任何形式的要约、承诺或其他法律文件，亦非任何投资、法律或财务等方面的专业建议。过往业绩 不预示未来表现。投资须谨慎。 由情绪冲击转向通胀定价 针对本轮伊朗冲突，资本市场已经历了"两轮冲击"的定价： 第一轮是事件初期的风险偏好与流动性冲击。 冲突爆发后，地缘不确定性快速推升市场避险情绪，引 发市场短期脉冲式调整。随着市场对冲突烈度、持续时间的预期逐步趋于明朗， 恐慌情绪较事件初期 已经有所缓和，市场波动率边际回落 。 来源： Dario Caldara and Matteo lacoviello， 万得，淡水泉投资，截至2026年3月13日。 第二轮是原油价格中枢抬升带来的通胀冲击。 作为全球能源运输的关键枢纽，霍尔木兹海峡承担着全 球约20%的石油贸易量，冲突持续将加剧原油等能源品供给紧张，推升通胀水平，进而加剧全球滞胀担 忧，并扰动全球货币政策预期。从原油期货的期限结构来看，当前呈现"近强远弱"格 ...

Core Viewpoint - The 2026 Government Work Report sets a pragmatic economic growth target of 4.5% to 5%, slightly down from the previous year's target of "around 5%", aiming to provide necessary space for structural adjustments, risk prevention, and reforms while striving for better outcomes in practice [2][3]. Economic Growth Target - The growth target for 2026 is set at 4.5%-5%, which is a slight adjustment from the previous year's "around 5%" [2][3]. - This target aligns with the long-term goal of doubling per capita GDP by 2035 compared to 2020 levels, requiring an average annual GDP growth of 4.17% over the next decade [2]. - The government aims to maintain a growth range of approximately 5% in 2026 and around 4.5% by 2029-2030 [2]. Fiscal Policy - The budget deficit rate for this year is set at 4%, with a deficit scale of 5.89 trillion yuan, reflecting a slight decrease in fiscal expansion compared to last year [5]. - Despite a reduction in fiscal expansion, actual fiscal support remains strong due to unspent budget from 2025 and the cumulative effect of policy financial tools [5]. - The potential new financial resources available in 2026 are estimated at around 2 trillion yuan, which is comparable to the increase in the broad deficit for 2025 [5]. Price Trends - The year 2026 is expected to be a "re-inflation" year, with the report aiming to push the overall price level from negative to positive, and CPI is projected to rise to a range of 1%-2% [7]. - The recovery in prices is anticipated to enhance nominal GDP growth, improve household income, corporate profits, and fiscal growth, thereby boosting social expectations and market risk appetite [7]. Green Transition - The report emphasizes the importance of a comprehensive green transition, setting a target for carbon emission intensity to decrease by approximately 3.8%, which is higher than market expectations [11][12]. - This reflects China's strong commitment to achieving its carbon peak goal by 2030 during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period [11]. New Growth Drivers - The past decade has seen a shift in China's economic model from reliance on "land finance, infrastructure, and real estate" to "technological innovation, industrial upgrading, and consumption-driven" growth [14]. - The report highlights the need to cultivate new growth drivers, focusing on emerging industries such as integrated circuits, aerospace, biomedicine, and future industries like quantum technology and 6G [18]. - Over 80 of the 109 major projects planned during the "14th Five-Year Plan" are related to technological innovation and green development, indicating a structural shift towards high-quality economic growth [18].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the rapid development and commercialization of humanoid robots in China, emphasizing the investment opportunities arising from this trend as the industry transitions from experimental phases to practical applications [3][4]. Group 1: Market Growth and Demand - The humanoid robot market in China is expected to see significant growth, with sales projected to exceed 10,000 units by 2025 and reach 40,000 to 50,000 units by 2026, while global sales may surpass 100,000 units [4]. - The long-term potential for humanoid robots is substantial, with expectations that they could become a core component of consumer and industrial applications, similar to automobiles and smartphones [4]. Group 2: Commercial Applications - Humanoid robots are currently being deployed in three main application areas: 1. **Guidance and Display**: Serving as intelligent assistants in malls, factories, exhibition halls, and tourist attractions, enhancing digital upgrades in physical spaces [7]. 2. **Data Training Centers**: Companies and research institutions are establishing data training centers to support robot development, creating a stable demand market [7]. 3. **Industrial Applications**: The industrial sector is witnessing mature applications of robots, evolving from basic tasks to more complex operations like welding and quality inspection [7]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities - Two key investment opportunities in the robot industry are identified: 1. **"Selling Shovels"**: Companies providing core components for robots, which will benefit from the industry's growth without directly manufacturing robots [15][16]. 2. **Application Innovation**: Companies that innovate in the application of robots across various scenarios will also present significant investment potential [15]. Group 4: Cost Reduction and Competitive Advantage - The rapid reduction in the cost of core components, such as linear actuators, is crucial for the scalability of robot production, with prices dropping from tens of thousands to under a thousand yuan [18][21]. - Companies that can establish strong technological barriers and competitive products in this cost-reduction phase are expected to be more attractive for investment [21]. Group 5: Industry Evolution and Comparison - The trajectory of the robot industry is likened to that of the new energy vehicle sector, suggesting that it will undergo phases of thematic speculation, policy support, and order fulfillment [24]. - The current phase of the robot industry is characterized by a shift from speculative narratives to a focus on actual order conversions and technological advancements [24].

获取详细内容 重要提示：本材料不构成淡水泉任何形式的要约、承诺或其他法律文件，亦非任何投资、法律或财务等方面的专业建议。过往业绩不预示未来表现。投资须谨慎。 2026年2月 淡水泉 月度观点，投资人和合作伙伴请点击左下角"阅读原文"了解详细内容。 ...

M 丙午呈祥， 骐骥锦春， 淡水泉投资祝您春节快乐！ ...

提醒广大投资者保护合法权益，维护公司声誉，淡水泉投资郑重声明及提示如下： 一、淡水泉投资全称为"淡水泉（北京）投资管理有限公司"，为中国证券投资基金业协会备案的私募证券投资基金管理人（登记编码：P1000294）。 二、根据法律法规，淡水泉所有产品及服务仅面向合格投资者。淡水泉从未面向公众开展证券投资、咨询、培训等活动，也从未授权任何第三方以淡水泉 名义开展前述活动。请广大投资者遇到不规范证券活动时注意甄别。 三、淡水泉投资唯一官方网站为：https://www.springs-capital.com/ 官方微信公众号为：淡水泉投资，此外在新浪微博、雪球、东方财富网、知乎等网站平 台上开设的官方账号请以平台加V认证为准。淡水泉投资未广泛在其他互联网平台上设立官方账号，请广大投资者注意甄别。 以下为官方网站及微信公众号二维码： 淡水泉（北京）投资管理有限公司（下称"淡水泉投资"）关注到有不法分子冒用淡水泉投资、淡水泉投资员工的名义，在互联网平台或线下开展非法荐 股、非法集资、项目投资等违法证券活动，涉嫌骗取投资者钱财，甚至有不法分子冒充监管部门，谎称"受金融监督管理部门委托，开展兑换减损处置工 作"，虚构所谓的 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant trends in the commodity market, highlighting the rise of resource nationalism and the investment opportunities in the mining supply chain as a response to the evolving market dynamics and increasing competition among nations for resource control [1][4]. Group 1: Resource Nationalism and Industry Expansion - Resource nationalism is on the rise, leading to increased production incentives as countries prioritize control over their resources. Resource-exporting nations are moving away from previous models of "heavy export, light control" to policies that enhance resource sovereignty and local benefits [5][6]. - Major consuming countries, particularly manufacturing giants like the US and China, are accelerating their global resource strategies to ensure supply chain security and strategic competition, which intensifies the competition in the resource sector [6]. Group 2: Investment Cycles and Demand Dynamics - Following the Fed's interest rate cuts in 2020, the mining sector experienced a significant investment expansion, with global mining capital expenditure increasing by 50% from 2020 to 2023. However, growth slowed from 2023 to 2025, maintaining a modest single-digit increase or remaining flat [10]. - As the global resource market enters a bull phase and a new round of interest rate cuts begins, mining capital expenditure is expected to restart its upward cycle, with Caterpillar predicting a further 50% increase in mining capital expenditure by 2030 [12]. Group 3: Focus on Post-Cycle Investments - Different stages of mining development correspond to various cycle attributes and investment logic. Exploration and mining infrastructure are considered pre-cycle, while extraction, transportation, screening, and refining are post-cycle. The current trend shows a decline in new mine developments while capital expenditure on existing mines is increasing, indicating a focus on post-cycle investments [14][18]. - The post-cycle segments of mining, which are often associated with large-scale production and high technical barriers, present significant growth opportunities for companies. For instance, the demand for large-capacity mining trucks is high, but Chinese brands have historically struggled to penetrate the international market due to technological and ecological barriers [20]. Group 4: Opportunities for Chinese Enterprises - The changing global mining landscape offers new opportunities for Chinese companies, particularly in the post-cycle segments. Chinese mining companies' global expansion provides a chance for domestic mining truck manufacturers to collaborate and enter international markets, leveraging cost advantages and efficient service support [22]. - The push for green transformation in mining, driven by global carbon neutrality goals, is leading to the adoption of electric and autonomous mining trucks. Chinese companies are capitalizing on this trend by integrating electric technology into mining operations, enhancing competitiveness and operational efficiency [22][23].

提醒广大投资者保护合法权益，维护公司声誉，淡水泉投资郑重声明及提示如下： 淡水泉（北京）投资管理有限公司（下称"淡水泉投资"）关注到有不法分子冒用淡水泉投资、淡水泉投资员工的名义，在互联网平台或线下开展非法荐 股、非法集资、项目投资等违法证券活动，涉嫌骗取投资者钱财，甚至有不法分子冒充监管部门，谎称"受金融监督管理部门委托，开展兑换减损处置工 作"，虚构所谓的"非法集资减损平台"，持续行骗。 四、我们强烈谴责该等不法分子冒用淡水泉名义从事非法活动的行为，并保留追究其法律责任的权利。 一、淡水泉投资全称为"淡水泉（北京）投资管理有限公司"，为中国证券投资基金业协会备案的私募证券投资基金管理人（登记编码：P1000294）。 二、根据法律法规，淡水泉所有产品及服务仅面向合格投资者。淡水泉从未面向公众开展证券投资、咨询、培训等活动，也从未授权任何第三方以淡水泉 名义开展前述活动。请广大投资者遇到不规范证券活动时注意甄别。 三、淡水泉投资唯一官方网站为：https://www.springs-capital.com/ 官方微信公众号为：淡水泉投资，此外在新浪微博、雪球、东方财富网、知乎等网站平 台上开设的官方账号请以 ...

淡水泉（北京）投资管理有限公司（下称"淡水泉投资"）关注到有不法分子冒用淡水泉投资、淡水泉投 资员工的名义，在互联网平台或线下开展非法荐股、非法集资、项目投资等违法证券活动，涉嫌骗取投 资者钱财。 为提醒广大投资者保护合法权益，维护公司声誉，淡水泉投资郑重声明及提示如下： 一、淡水泉投资全称为"淡水泉（北京）投资管理有限公司"，为中国证券投资基金业协会备案的私募证 券投资基金管理人（登记编码：P1000294）。请合格投资者在接受服务时注意甄别行为主体。 二、根据法律法规，淡水泉所有产品及服务仅面向合格投资者。淡水泉从未面向公众开展证券投资、咨 询、培训等活动，也从未授权任何第三方以淡水泉名义开展前述活动。请广大投资者遇到不规范证券活 动时注意甄别。 三、淡水泉投资唯一官方网站为：www.springs-capital.com，官方微信公众号为：淡水泉投资，此外在 新浪微博、雪球、东方财富网、知乎等网站平台上开设的官方账号请以平台加V认证为准。淡水泉投资 未广泛在其他互联网平台上设立官方账号，请广大投资者注意甄别。 以下为官方网站及微信公众号二维码： 四、我们强烈谴责该等不法分子冒用淡水泉名义从事非法活动的行 ...