【广发宏观陈礼清】5月以来的宏观交易主线：大类资产配置月度展望

Core Viewpoint - The macroeconomic environment in May 2025 shows a mixed performance across various asset classes, with a notable recovery in commodities and a positive response from developed markets to eased trade tensions [1][2][3]. Group 1: Asset Performance - In May 2025, major asset performances ranked as follows: Nasdaq > Nikkei > Hang Seng > LME Copper Futures > Euro Stoxx > ChiNext > CSI 300 > Hang Seng Tech > Brent Oil > 0 > China Bonds > US Dollar > Spot Gold > Sci-Tech 50 > South China Composite, with commodities showing upward trends since June [1][14]. - Developed markets outperformed emerging markets, with US tech stocks (TAMAMA index) rising by 11.4% and the DAX and Nikkei indices increasing by over 5% [2][18]. - The CRB index rose by 7.94% from the end of May to June 3, indicating a rebound in commodity prices [2][17]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - The macroeconomic indicators for May 2025 suggest a mild recovery in the domestic economy, with the BCI, EPMI, and manufacturing PMI slightly better than previous values [4][66]. - The high-frequency simulation model estimates the actual GDP monthly index for May at 5.19%, projecting a second-quarter GDP of around 5.2% [4][71]. - The nominal GDP growth rate is expected to be around 4.06%, indicating a need for improved production capacity and policy transmission [4][93]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The market is currently influenced by three main themes: the "tariff theme," which reflects eased tariff risks; the "odds theme," indicating a stabilization of market lower limits; and the "structural certainty theme," focusing on stable sectors and financial assets [3][59]. - The domestic stock market continues to exhibit a "dumbbell" structure, with small and micro-cap stocks and large-cap value styles performing well [2][29]. - Over 80% of the Shenwan first-level industries recorded positive returns in May, with finance and consumption leading the performance [2][39]. Group 4: Investment Opportunities - Future drivers for equity assets may include a return to historical patterns, with consumer assets showing both "odds and win rate" advantages [5][88]. - The market's lower limit has been raised following the easing of extreme trade conditions, with 71.8% of stocks closing above the 60-week moving average by the end of May [5][94]. - New thematic opportunities may arise from technological breakthroughs in key industries or new mid-term policy incentives expected around the end of July [5][95].