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Core Viewpoint - The investment essence of the innovative drug industry is a "high risk, high return" technology game, with value realization highly concentrated in the window of "emergence of potential blockbuster drugs → successful commercialization during patent period" [2] Group 1: Nature of Innovative Drug Investment - Innovative drug investment combines "stage-based value investment" and "probability game" due to the industry's unique characteristics [3] - The overall R&D return rate in the industry is close to zero, with a 90% failure rate in clinical stages, leading to a valuation paradox [3] - The value of companies is highly dependent on single blockbuster drugs, and without replacement products post-patent cliff, valuations can collapse [3] Group 2: Redefining Value Investment - Traditional value investment standards are difficult to apply to pure innovative drug companies due to low R&D returns and high failure rates [4] - Value creation in innovative drug companies is concentrated in the window of "potential blockbuster validation → approval → successful commercialization" [4] - The core of evaluating a drug company is the discounted cash flow of existing products and future pipelines, with blockbuster potential being a key variable [4] Group 3: Probability Game - Drug development is a high-risk process, with early pipeline value being low but exponential increases in value upon successful key clinical trials [6] - Excellent platforms and management can significantly improve success probabilities and efficiencies, although they do not guarantee success [6] - The role of platforms includes improving success rates, increasing the number of attempts, and maximizing the value of successful projects [6] Group 4: Investment Decision Framework - Investment decisions should revolve around the value verification and release cycle of potential blockbuster drugs [8] - Early-stage investments focus on companies with disruptive technology platforms or unique scientific insights, with high risk but potentially huge returns [9] - Key value inflection points occur when core pipelines enter critical clinical stages, significantly increasing success probabilities [11] Group 5: Timing and Exit Strategies - Timing is crucial; knowing when to invest is often more important than which company to invest in [19] - Investors should exit when core value drivers are disproven, growth expectations peak, or when nearing patent cliffs [17] - Continuous tracking of pipeline progress, competitive landscape, clinical data, regulatory dynamics, and sales performance is essential [19] Group 6: Final Conclusion - Innovative drug investment focuses on identifying and investing in companies experiencing non-linear value growth driven by breakthrough drugs [20] - Successful investment requires scientific insight, business judgment, probability thinking, and strict timing discipline [20]