研报 | 需求升温促使2Q25 Server与PC DDR4模组合约价涨幅扩大

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the anticipated price increases for Server and PC DDR4 modules in the second quarter of 2025, driven by supply constraints and proactive inventory stocking by buyers, with expected increases of 18-23% for Server DDR4 and 13-18% for PC DDR4, surpassing previous forecasts [1][2][3]. Group 1: Price Trends - The price of Server DDR4 modules is projected to rise by 18-23% in Q2 2025 and 8-13% in Q3 2025 [2]. - PC DDR4 module prices are expected to increase by 13-18% in Q2 2025 and 18-23% in Q3 2025 [2]. - The adjustments in price forecasts are attributed to the strategic inventory stocking by cloud service providers (CSPs) and the tightening supply-demand dynamics in the market [3]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The DDR4 generation has surpassed a 10-year lifecycle, with demand gradually shifting towards DDR5, HBM, and LPDDR5 products, leading major suppliers to plan the discontinuation of DDR4 production by early 2026 [2]. - The demand for storage servers, particularly in AI applications, has been robust, contributing to increased orders for DDR4 memory [3]. - The international situation in early April prompted PC OEMs to increase production volumes and expedite shipments to the U.S. market to mitigate uncertainties, further tightening the supply of PC DDR4 [3]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The future price trends for DDR4 contracts will be influenced by supplier production strategies and tariff policies, with potential for further price increases due to anticipated inventory demands [3]. - TrendForce will continue to monitor changes in supplier output strategies and downstream customer stocking behaviors [3].