Counterpoint Research·2025-06-05 08:32Core Insights - The global new energy vehicle (NEV) battery installation volume is expected to grow by 22% year-on-year in 2024, with Chinese manufacturers surpassing a 70% market share [2][4] - CATL leads the market with a 38% share, followed by BYD at 18%, benefiting from strong domestic demand and export expansion [2][4] - The shift in battery structure is influenced by the rising share of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs), which increased from 30% in 2023 to 37% in 2024, impacting overall average battery capacity [4] Market Dynamics - The decline in market share for LG Energy Solution, Panasonic, and SK Innovation is attributed to weak demand in Europe and the US, delays in new factory launches, and reduced orders from traditional automakers [2] - CALB is the only second-tier manufacturer maintaining stable momentum amidst these challenges [2] Battery Capacity Trends - Despite an increase in average battery capacity for battery electric vehicles (BEVs), the overall average battery capacity for NEVs decreased by 1% due to the higher proportion of PHEVs [4] - PHEVs are particularly popular in regions with underdeveloped charging infrastructure, such as Europe and China [4] Supply Chain Adjustments - Upcoming tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles and battery components in Europe and the US are prompting a restructuring of global supply chains [4] - Automakers are shifting production to Mexico, the southeastern US, India, and Indonesia to avoid high import costs, while reevaluating their strategies for battery, power system, and chip production [4] Analyst Perspectives - Counterpoint analysts emphasize that China's battery advantages now extend beyond cost to include scale, execution, and industry integration [2] - Policy pressures are forcing automakers to rethink production layouts, with localized and flexible supply chains becoming crucial for the future [4]