一瑜中的·2025-06-06 10:34Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the performance of global asset classes in May, highlighting that global stocks outperformed commodities, the renminbi, and the dollar, while global bonds showed a decline [2]. Group 1: Global Asset Performance - In May, global stocks returned 5.72%, followed by commodities at 1.26%, the renminbi at 1.00%, the dollar at -0.14%, and global bonds at -0.36% [2]. - The "Big and Beautiful Act" in the U.S. may exacerbate long-term debt risks, with projections indicating that the debt-to-GDP ratio could soar to 134%-149% by 2035 if the act is implemented [4][10]. - The probability of a U.S. economic recession is rising, leading to defensive sectors outperforming cyclical sectors, with defensive sectors showing a year-to-date valuation increase of 10.7% compared to cyclical sectors [5][13]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - Emerging markets are outperforming developed markets, driven by a weaker dollar, which reduces the holding costs of emerging market assets and alleviates debt pressures [6][15]. - Global fund managers have increased their allocation to European stocks, reaching the highest level since October 2017, with net overweights rising from 22% to 35% [6][18]. - U.S. trade policy uncertainty is identified as a significant risk for U.S. stocks, with a close correlation observed between the Bloomberg U.S. Trade Policy Uncertainty Index and the S&P 500 Index [6][22]. Group 3: Currency and Bond Market Insights - The implied volatility of the USD/HKD risk reversal options has dropped to historically low levels, indicating a dominant bearish sentiment towards the HKD [7][25]. - The forward P/E ratio premium of the "Seven Giants" in the U.S. stock market has decreased to historical lows, suggesting a reset in the valuation advantage of tech giants [8][28]. - The Japanese yen's traditional safe-haven status has weakened, leading to significant depreciation in May, while other Asian currencies benefited from tariff pauses [8][31]. Group 4: Recent Developments in Currencies - Following the U.S.-China tariff suspension agreement, the onshore renminbi exchange rate broke through the central bank's midpoint, reaching a new high for the year [9][32]. - The New Taiwan Dollar experienced significant appreciation, surpassing the 30 mark against the U.S. dollar, attributed to foreign capital inflows and global risk sentiment rebound [9][37].