国泰海通｜煤炭：迎接6月基本面拐点

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that coal prices are stabilizing at the bottom, with an expected turning point in June as temperatures rise and inventory decreases [1] - The recent reduction in railway freight rates for coal transportation from Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia reflects significant losses in these regions, leading to a decrease in transportation costs [1] - In April, national coal production saw a substantial decrease of 50 million tons to 390 million tons, indicating a self-induced reduction in supply due to economic factors at a port price of 650 RMB/ton [1] Group 2 - For thermal coal, a price rebound is anticipated in June, with the current market price for Q5500 coal at 621 RMB/ton, remaining stable compared to the previous week [2] - Domestic supply remains stable while imports continue to decline, with expectations that total supply will maintain stability throughout the year [2] - The demand side shows signs of recovery, particularly in non-electric coal, which is expected to help coal prices return to an upward trajectory [2] Group 3 - In the coking coal sector, the price for main coking coal at Jingtang Port is currently 1270 RMB/ton, down 30 RMB/ton (-2.3%) from the previous week, indicating a peak in iron and steel demand [3] - The average daily iron and steel production is reported at 2.4185 million tons, showing a slight decrease, suggesting that the peak in iron and steel production has been reached [3] - The cost of domestic coking coal remains lower than that of imported coal, with a significant price advantage of 448 RMB/ton for domestic coking coal compared to Australian imports [3]