Core Viewpoint - The stability of stablecoins relies heavily on real-world financial order, legal structures, and monetary policies rather than solely on blockchain technology. Their stability will ultimately be tested by market pricing, regulatory frameworks, and user trust [1][29]. Group 1: Circle's IPO and Market Position - Circle went public on June 5, 2025, on the NYSE, becoming the first publicly traded stablecoin company, with an initial stock price of $83.23, a 168.48% increase from its offering price, and a total market capitalization of $18.4 billion [2][7]. - The IPO signifies a shift towards regulatory compliance, as Circle has obtained licenses in key jurisdictions, including Singapore and the EU, and will now adhere to higher standards of information disclosure and governance [8]. - Circle's primary revenue model involves earning interest from user deposits by investing in money market funds and government bonds, similar to traditional banks, which raises questions about its sustainability in a changing interest rate environment [8][15]. Group 2: Competitive Landscape and Regulatory Environment - The stablecoin market is dominated by USDT and USDC, which together account for over 86% of the market, highlighting the competitive pressures and regulatory uncertainties that Circle faces [3][4]. - The recent passage of the GENIUS Act in the U.S. Senate and the Stablecoin Ordinance in Hong Kong indicates a global acceleration in stablecoin regulation, which could impact Circle's operations and market positioning [32][33]. Group 3: Financial Performance and Risks - Circle reported a net profit of approximately $157 million for 2024, primarily from interest income, but its profitability is highly dependent on the prevailing interest rates set by the Federal Reserve [8][17]. - The company faces systemic risks, including its strong reliance on interest rates, market concentration with USDT, and regulatory gray areas due to its non-bank financial institution status [17][18]. - The governance structure of Circle raises concerns about decision-making centralization and potential conflicts of interest, as key executives hold significant voting power and have ties to other crypto entities [14][29]. Group 4: Market Dynamics and User Trust - The stability of USDC is demonstrated by its trading range, which remained close to $1, indicating strong price anchoring, while USDT exhibited more volatility [23][24]. - The true stability of stablecoins is influenced by liquidity limits, jurisdictional risks, and governance transparency, emphasizing the importance of real-world financial systems in maintaining their value [27][28][29].
【首席观察】Circle上市 链上角逐！稳定币的“稳”与“不稳”