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榴莲暴跌
投资界·2025-06-07 07:29

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant price drop of durians in the market, attributing it to supply-demand dynamics and quality issues, highlighting the impact on the high-end fruit retail sector [4][12]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - Durians' wholesale prices have decreased sharply, with the average price falling from 69.26 yuan/kg in April to 51.38 yuan/kg by May 23, a decline of 25.8% [4]. - The expected increase in supply from Thailand and Vietnam, with Thailand's production projected to rise by 30% to 1.5 million tons and Vietnam's at 850,000 tons, is anticipated to exert downward pressure on prices [5]. - The trade facilitation from the China-ASEAN Free Trade Area negotiations has improved the efficiency of durian imports, reducing transportation costs and time [6]. Quality Issues - There is a notable decline in the quality of imported durians, with a high proportion of "raw" durians that are not properly matured, leading to poor consumer experiences [8]. - The overlap of the harvest season with the rainy season in Thailand has adversely affected the sugar accumulation and maturity of the fruit [8]. - The influx of low-quality durians has led to a price drop as sellers attempt to offload unsold stock, creating a "domino effect" on prices [9]. Market Segmentation - The market is experiencing a bifurcation where low-quality durians are sold at significantly reduced prices, while high-quality durians remain scarce and maintain higher prices [10]. - The average purchase price for AB-grade durians in Thailand has dropped to approximately 10.5 yuan/斤, yet the domestic market struggles to sell even at 300 yuan per box [9]. Retail Sector Impact - Retailers are facing reduced profit margins due to the price drop, with some reporting profits being halved [12]. - The decline in durian prices has prompted retailers to rethink their business strategies, focusing more on quality control and diversifying their product offerings to mitigate risks [13][14]. - The overall demand for high-end fruits is becoming more uncertain, as consumers prioritize essential goods during economic instability [12]. Future Trends - The article suggests that the high-profit era for premium fruits may be coming to an end, with quality and service becoming the core competitive advantages in the retail sector [14]. - Retailers are adjusting their strategies to include a wider variety of fruits, aiming to enhance resilience against market fluctuations [14][15].