美股要冲击新高，投资者却“进退两难”：能追吗？还是等回调？

Core Viewpoint - Fund managers are in a dilemma after the strongest May performance in over 30 years for the US stock market, facing the decision to chase gains or wait for a pullback [1][2] Market Performance - The Nasdaq rose by 9% and the S&P 500 increased by 6% in May, marking the best performance for the month in over 30 years [5] - The IPO market is experiencing a resurgence, with notable gains from companies like Coreweave and Circle [5] Economic Indicators - Despite a lack of fear factors in the market, economic data appears weak, and the probability of recession has not surged [4][6] - The upcoming CPI report is anticipated to show a 0.3% month-over-month increase, raising the year-over-year core reading to 2.9%, above the Federal Reserve's 2% target [5][6] Investor Sentiment - There is a prevailing sense of complacency among investors, but underlying risks remain, including geopolitical tensions and trade uncertainties [7][10] - The S&P 500 has lagged behind the MSCI global index (excluding the US) by nearly 12 percentage points, indicating a poor relative performance [8] Political and Trade Risks - Political risks are resurfacing, particularly related to Trump's policies and potential retaliatory tariffs from the 899th clause, which could impact various countries and sectors [10] - The dollar's weakening is becoming a significant variable, with the S&P 500's performance affected by currency adjustments [10] Market Dynamics - Despite a vibrant market, trading volume has hit a low for the year, revealing deep-seated divergences among investors [12] - Fund managers who missed the recent rally face a critical decision on whether to reallocate now or wait for a minor correction, which could significantly impact their annual performance [12]