国泰海通证券研究·2025-06-08 13:53Group 1: Core Insights - Stablecoins are expected to alleviate short-term U.S. debt demand but have limited impact on long-term debt [1][3] - The global stablecoin market has surpassed $240 billion since 2025, with significant penetration in crypto trading, cross-border payments, and DeFi [1][2] - The market is highly concentrated, dominated by Tether (USDT) and USD Coin (USDC) [1] Group 2: Regulatory Developments - The U.S. GENIUS Act establishes a systematic regulatory framework for stablecoins at the federal level, enhancing market development [2] - Tether and Circle have become significant new buyers of U.S. Treasury securities, holding over $120 billion in short-term U.S. debt [2] - Hong Kong's Stablecoin Regulation enhances local compliance and serves as a regional model for global stablecoin regulation [2] Group 3: Impact on U.S. Debt - Citigroup predicts the global stablecoin market could grow to $1.6 trillion by 2030, with a potential $1 trillion increase in short-term U.S. debt demand if stablecoin market reaches $2 trillion [3] - The GENIUS Act limits stablecoin reserves to cash or U.S. Treasury securities maturing within 93 days, restricting their impact to short-term debt [3] Group 4: Risks and Challenges - Stablecoins exhibit "shadow banking" characteristics, posing systemic risks such as potential "de-pegging" and bank run scenarios [4] - The expansion of stablecoins may siphon deposits from the banking system, affecting credit expansion and monetary policy transmission [4] - Regulatory frameworks like the GENIUS Act and Hong Kong's regulations set high standards but require ongoing attention to risk transmission and regulatory arbitrage [4]