稳定币与安全资产价格

Core Insights - The rapid growth of stablecoins and the introduction of regulations such as Hong Kong's Stablecoin Regulation and the US GENIUS Act have made stablecoins a focal point in the market [2][11] - The impact of stablecoin flows on short-term US Treasury yields is significant, with a net inflow of $3.5 billion leading to a decrease in 3-month Treasury yields by approximately 2-2.5 basis points within 10 days [2][6] - Conversely, outflows have a more pronounced effect, with a $3.5 billion outflow resulting in an increase of about 6-8 basis points in yields [2][6] - The influence of stablecoin flows is primarily concentrated in the short end of the yield curve, particularly affecting 3-month Treasury yields, while having minimal spillover effects on 2-year and 5-year yields [2][6] - Continued rapid expansion of the stablecoin market could significantly depress short-term Treasury yields, potentially disrupting the effectiveness of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy transmission [2][7] Group 1: Stablecoins and Safe Asset Prices - The total asset management scale of dollar stablecoins exceeded $200 billion by March 2025, surpassing the holdings of major foreign investors like China in short-term US securities [4][12] - Stablecoin issuers, particularly Tether (USDT) and Circle (USDC), support their tokens primarily through US Treasury bills and money market instruments, making them key players in the short-term debt market [4][12] - In 2024, dollar stablecoins purchased nearly $40 billion in US Treasury bills, comparable to the largest government money market funds in the US [4][12] Group 2: Data and Methodology - The research utilized daily frequency data from January 2021 to March 2025, sourced from various platforms including CoinMarketCap and Yahoo Finance [5][16] - The study focused on the 3-month Treasury yield as the primary variable, employing a simple univariate local projection model to analyze the impact of stablecoin flows [5][23] Group 3: Empirical Research on Stablecoin Flows - The empirical results indicate that a total inflow of $3.5 billion in stablecoins correlates with a decrease of approximately 2.5 basis points in the 3-month Treasury yield within 10 days, and up to 5 basis points within 20 days [6][35] - The contributions of different stablecoin issuers to yield changes were analyzed, with USDT accounting for approximately -1.54 basis points (70% of the total impact) and USDC contributing about 19% [6][38] Group 4: Discussion and Policy Implications - The potential for stablecoin market expansion to compress short-term Treasury yields raises concerns about the Federal Reserve's control over short-term interest rates [7][40] - The transparency of reserves is crucial, with USDC's disclosures being more transparent compared to USDT, highlighting the need for standardized reporting to mitigate systemic risks [7][41] - The strong demand for Treasuries from stablecoins may exacerbate the "safe asset scarcity" issue faced by non-bank financial institutions, affecting liquidity premiums [8][40]