中金缪延亮：国际货币体系的十个“未解之谜”

Core Viewpoint - The current international monetary system is undergoing profound changes due to the long-term disorderly expansion of U.S. public debt, the "weaponization" of the dollar during the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and various policy proposals during the Trump 2.0 era, which erode the credibility of the dollar as the world's reserve currency [2]. Group 1: Triffin Dilemma Misinterpretations - The "Triffin Dilemma" has evolved into two versions post-Bretton Woods: one concerning the current account and the other regarding "safe assets," both of which contain significant misunderstandings [4][13]. - Misconceptions include confusing net capital with total capital inflows, mixing "earned" and "borrowed" foreign exchange reserves, and conflating bilateral with multilateral capital flows [17][19][20]. - The supply of dollar liquidity is not necessarily linked to the U.S. current account deficit, as the U.S. maintained a current account surplus for about 30 years after becoming the primary reserve currency [14][21]. Group 2: U.S. Stocks as Safe Assets - Overseas funds have shifted from U.S. Treasury bonds to U.S. stocks, leading to the disappearance of the equity risk premium in the S&P 500, indicating that investors now view U.S. stocks as safe assets [5][23]. - This shift is driven by declining safety perceptions of U.S. debt and the stable long-term growth of U.S. stocks, with significant capital inflows into the U.S. stock market [26][30]. Group 3: U.S. Reserve Currency Status - The U.S. is unlikely to relinquish its status as the world's reserve currency due to the substantial benefits it provides, including the international seigniorage revenue [6][32]. - The unique asset-liability structure of the U.S. allows it to benefit from dollar depreciation, effectively transferring payment burdens globally [36][39]. Group 4: Declining Economic Share vs. Rising Financial Dominance - While the U.S. share of the real economy is declining, its share in international finance is increasing, primarily due to the offshore dollar being the most important financing currency and onshore dollars being viewed as safe assets [7][40][44]. - The expansion of cross-border capital flows has outpaced trade growth, reinforcing the dollar's financial position [46]. Group 5: Dollar Cycles - The dollar exhibits cyclical characteristics influenced by fundamentals, policies, and capital flows, with positive feedback mechanisms amplifying these cycles [8][48][52]. - The dollar's appreciation impacts global economies asymmetrically, benefiting the U.S. while constraining other economies [53]. Group 6: The Dollar's Global Impact - The U.S. often emerges unscathed from global crises, with the adverse effects disproportionately affecting non-U.S. economies due to the asymmetrical impact of U.S. monetary policy [56][58]. - The dollar's status as a reserve currency provides the U.S. with unique advantages, including lower financing costs and the ability to conduct fiscal stimulus without immediate repayment pressures [57]. Group 7: Need for an International Monetary System - The current trend towards a multi-polar world raises questions about the necessity of an international monetary system, with the dollar still playing a central role in global trade and finance [62][63]. - A multi-currency system may be preferable to a non-system, as it allows for currency competition and provides space for emerging currencies like the renminbi [64]. Group 8: Transitioning to a Multi-Currency System - Transitioning from a dollar-centric system to a multi-currency system requires policy coordination among major currency issuers and flexible exchange rate arrangements [11][65].