中金2025下半年展望 | 大宗商品综述：一致预期后的变局

Group 1 - The core variable affecting the commodity market in the first half of the year was the fluctuating U.S. tariff policy, which significantly impacted market risk appetite and commodity prices [2][5][6] - The commodity market experienced a phase of synchronized price movements driven by external shocks rather than fundamental changes, with a notable increase in the correlation index of commodity prices since April [5][6] - Following signals of tariff policy easing from the U.S. government in late April and the joint statement from the U.S.-China Geneva trade talks in mid-May, there are indications that tariff uncertainty may have peaked, leading to a recovery in commodity prices and market positions [2][5] Group 2 - Looking ahead to the second half of the year, the impact of trade policies and geopolitical situations on the commodity market is expected to shift from anticipation to reality, with various fundamental factors potentially creating opportunities for divergence from consensus expectations [3][15] - Key areas of focus include the marginal slowdown in demand for major commodities, the ongoing adjustments in tariff policies, and the geopolitical negotiations involving the U.S. and Iran/Russia, which may affect energy supply [3][15][16] Group 3 - An updated forecast indicates an increase in the number of commodities experiencing supply surplus, reflecting widespread demand pressures, with only the domestic aluminum market and the U.S. natural gas market expected to maintain a shortfall [4][43] - The potential for price recovery in the second half of the year may hinge on cost feedback and premium reassessment, particularly for non-ferrous metals and energy, while iron ore and domestic pork prices may struggle to maintain their premiums [4][43] Group 4 - The U.S. has increased tariffs on steel and aluminum, while details on tariffs for copper and agricultural products remain pending, indicating ongoing tests of trade elasticity and supply resilience in these markets [15][25] - The geopolitical landscape, particularly negotiations involving the U.S. and Iran/Russia, continues to present uncertainties that could impact energy supply and pricing dynamics [38][39] Group 5 - The commodity market is expected to face a transition from tight supply-demand balance to potential oversupply, particularly in the oil market, influenced by OPEC+ production policies and external geopolitical factors [50][51] - The outlook for natural gas indicates challenges in rebalancing due to high inventory levels and the need for increased LNG imports in Europe, while coal prices are under pressure from weak demand and high inventory [56][57] Group 6 - The agricultural sector is anticipated to experience ongoing pressures, with soybean prices expected to fluctuate based on planting area adjustments and U.S.-China trade policy uncertainties, while pork prices may face downward pressure due to increased supply [69][75]