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中金2025下半年展望 | 美国宏观经济:美国式再平衡
中金点睛·2025-06-08 23:57

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant impact of the Trump administration's tariff policies on the U.S. economy, highlighting the multifaceted use of tariffs as a tool to address various domestic economic and social issues, including trade deficits, social inequality, national security, government debt, illegal immigration, and drug abuse [2][20]. Tariff Policy and Economic Impact - The effective tariff rate in the U.S. rose to 28.4% before decreasing to 15.5% after progress in U.S.-China talks, still significantly higher than 2.4% in 2024, marking the highest level in nearly a century [6][11]. - Tariffs are viewed as a negative supply shock with "stagflation" effects, potentially leading to inflationary pressures in the U.S. economy, although the current inflation is expected to be more structural and one-time rather than indicative of overheating [3][27]. - The uncertainty surrounding tariff policies is causing businesses to delay investments and reduce hiring, contributing to downward pressure on economic activity [3][33]. Currency Valuation - The tariffs have unexpectedly led to a depreciation of the U.S. dollar, as investors perceive the high tariffs to be more harmful to the U.S. economy than to other countries, prompting a shift away from dollar assets [3][38]. - Concerns about potential strategies to devalue the dollar, similar to historical events like the Smith Agreement and Plaza Accord, are present, but the article suggests that active devaluation is not the baseline scenario [3][40]. Fiscal Policy and Tariffs - Tariffs function as a form of tax that can be passed on to consumers, acting as a "hidden consumption tax," which may help alleviate some deficit pressures but raises concerns about the high levels of government debt [4][45]. - The "One Big Beautiful Bill" proposed by the House aims to make tax cuts permanent while also cutting welfare spending, reflecting a functional fiscal approach that may limit inflationary pressures [4][49]. Economic Forecast - The U.S. economy is expected to experience "slowing growth and phase-in inflation" in the second half of 2025, with core CPI inflation projected to rise from 2.9% in Q2 to 3.5% in Q4 [6][58]. - Real GDP growth for 2025 is forecasted to decline to 2.0%, with further slowing in domestic demand indicators [6][58]. - The Federal Reserve is anticipated to delay interest rate cuts until Q4 2025, with a potential reduction of 25 basis points [6][59]. Trade Negotiations and Future Tariff Policies - Future tariff negotiations may focus on expanding U.S. exports and reducing trade barriers from other countries, with a possibility of maintaining a 10% base tariff as a revenue-generating measure [20][21]. - Tariffs related to illegal immigration and fentanyl may be lifted if substantial progress is made by other countries in addressing these issues [22][23]. - The article emphasizes that Trump's tariff policies reflect a broader trend of re-evaluating globalization and are likely to become institutionalized as part of his administration's strategy [23].