Core Viewpoint - The article suggests that the A-share market has likely reached a significant bottom, with structural opportunities emerging in growth, consumption, cyclical sectors, and dividends. The market is expected to experience high-frequency fluctuations within a narrow range, with a potential upward trend in the second half of the year, contingent on macroeconomic policies and external uncertainties [2][3][4]. Economic Recovery and Internal Dynamics - The internal momentum of China's economy is gradually recovering, supported by a package of stable growth policies. However, challenges remain, particularly in the real estate sector and weak consumer demand. The manufacturing sector's resilience is crucial for economic growth, but uncertainties regarding tariffs may dampen future export performance [3][6][7]. - The real estate market's stabilization is critical for macroeconomic health, with recent data indicating a narrowing decline in sales area but a widening decline in sales value. The sector's recovery will depend on effective policy responses [7][8]. Valuation Perspectives and Investor Dynamics - Despite a projected 3% decline in A-share earnings for 2024, dividend payouts are expected to increase by 5%, driven by improved free cash flow. The current dividend yield of the CSI 300 index is approximately 3.5%, significantly higher than the 10-year government bond yield, indicating a favorable valuation environment [4][5]. - The structure of investors in the A-share market is shifting, with individual investors gradually increasing their market presence, influencing market dynamics and styles [4]. Investment Strategy and Sector Focus - In an uncertain environment, the investment strategy should focus on certainty, prioritizing stable sectors before shifting to growth opportunities. Key investment themes include: 1. Opportunities in sectors that can clear supply and expand capacity, such as industrial metals and lithium batteries [5][23]. 2. High-growth opportunities less correlated with economic cycles, particularly in the AI industry and defense sectors [5][24]. 3. Dividend-paying sectors with strong cash flow and low volatility, including consumer staples and utilities [5][25]. Capital Market and Policy Environment - The capital market is undergoing steady institutional improvements, with new regulations supporting market stability and growth. The focus is on enhancing the development of technology-driven enterprises and promoting mergers and acquisitions [10][11]. - Fiscal policy is expected to play a crucial role in supporting economic recovery, with a projected increase in the deficit rate and government bond issuance for 2025, indicating a proactive approach to stimulate growth [9][10]. Profitability and Earnings Outlook - A-share profitability is anticipated to stabilize and improve, with projected earnings growth of approximately 3.5% for 2025. The non-financial sector is expected to see a more significant recovery, with earnings growth around 8.3% [21][22]. - The structural optimization of A-share earnings is evident, with a declining share of profits from real estate and construction, while the technology sector's contribution is increasing, highlighting a shift towards more sustainable growth drivers [25].
中金2025下半年展望 | A股市场：韧稳致远