中金2025下半年展望 | 房地产：信心、耐心与决心

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market is expected to stabilize gradually, with the process divided into three key phases, requiring patience from stakeholders [2][4]. Group 1: Market Confidence and Sales Performance - The Politburo meeting on September 26 established confidence in stabilizing the real estate market, leading to significant improvements in market sentiment from Q4 2024 to Q1 2025, with total annual sales of new and second-hand homes increasing by 120 million square meters [2][6]. - However, in Q2 2025, both sales volume and prices showed signs of weakening, indicating potential market volatility [2][10]. - The overall sales area of new homes has declined by approximately 55% from historical peaks, while second-hand home sales have decreased by about 6% [6]. Group 2: Policy Framework and Implementation - The current real estate policy framework consists of three main categories: 1. Policies aimed at adjusting supply-demand structures and restoring price expectations to achieve the first two phases of stabilization [3][20]. 2. Measures to mitigate and address risks arising from the downward cycle of real estate, preventing non-linear impacts on the macroeconomy [3][20]. 3. Long-term institutional policies aimed at correcting and preventing issues exposed during the current cycle [3][20]. - The first category includes adjustments to interest rates and purchase restrictions, as well as urban village renovations and the acquisition of existing land and housing [21][22]. Group 3: Short-term and Long-term Outlook - In the short term, the industry is expected to continue its bottoming phase, but there is considerable potential for recovery in the medium to long term [4][41]. - The anticipated scenario for 2025 is a "medium policy" situation, where total sales performance may slightly exceed expectations due to the prolonged effects of the September 26 policy [4][41]. - The recovery of total housing sales to historically reasonable levels is expected to create significant upward potential, particularly as the balance of new and second-hand homes improves [4][41]. Group 4: Risk Management and Structural Adjustments - The real estate sector faces risks related to high leverage among developers, which has led to liquidity crises and issues such as the "guarantee delivery" problem [31][32]. - Effective management of credit risks in real estate companies is crucial to avoid negative impacts on market sentiment and financial stability [32][34]. - The government is encouraged to adopt a more proactive approach in supporting systemically important real estate companies while balancing moral hazard and fairness in the restructuring process [33][34].