“申”度解盘 | 六月：区间震荡，结构行情

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of the financial market, focusing on the impact of U.S. tariff policies, domestic fiscal policies, and market performance indicators, highlighting both opportunities and uncertainties in investment strategies. Group 1: Tariff Events and Market Impact - The U.S. International Trade Court ruled that Trump's tariff actions under the IEEPA were illegal, leading to an appeal and a temporary stay on tariffs during the appeal process, creating uncertainty in trade policies [4][8] - Despite the ongoing tariff situation, the threat to China's capital market has decreased due to the vulnerabilities exhibited by the U.S. financial market amid rising domestic contradictions [4][8] Group 2: Fiscal Policy and Government Financing - The government is focusing on net financing to drive spending growth, with a target of 13.86 trillion yuan for net financing, of which 6.3 trillion yuan has been achieved by the end of May, leaving 7.5 trillion yuan to be issued [5][10] - It is anticipated that government net financing will remain high, with June potentially reaching a historical peak of 1.8 trillion yuan [10][11] Group 3: Market Performance Indicators - The equity risk premium for the CSI 300 index was recorded at 6.81 at the end of May, remaining above the historical mean by one standard deviation, indicating ongoing market volatility [5][13] - In May 2025, the number of stocks with over 20% gains increased by 156% year-on-year, suggesting a recovery in market profitability, although the potential for further expansion in a volatile market is limited [6][15] Group 4: Market Index Predictions - The Shanghai Composite Index showed a rebound followed by a correction, maintaining support at the 60-day moving average, with pressure expected near the year's high [17] - The CSI 300 index experienced an initial rise but faced adjustments, with technical pressure anticipated due to the loss of support at the half-year line [19]