这次真通电话了，中美市场将反馈几何？| 周度量化观察

Market Overview - A-shares experienced a comprehensive rise this week, with small-cap stocks continuing to outperform. The average daily trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets increased significantly compared to last week, indicating sustained momentum in the "small but beautiful" market structure [2][15]. Stock Market - The small-cap style has been dominant for an extended period, often associated with loose liquidity conditions. Current macroeconomic trends suggest that the trend of loose liquidity will continue, favoring small-cap stocks over large-cap stocks in terms of profit potential [7][8]. - The market's reaction to the recent China-US phone call was muted, indicating that investors are more focused on actual policy measures rather than mere expectations. The recommendation remains on sectors with clear fundamental improvements, particularly in technology and domestic consumption [8]. Bond Market - The bond market showed a strong performance this week, with a downward trend in the yield of ten-year government bonds. The central bank's liquidity support is evident, and the risk of significant interest rate hikes in the bond market is low [3][9]. - The bond market is expected to serve as a stabilizing asset class in the current economic environment, with a focus on appropriate buying timing to enhance returns [9]. Commodity Market - Gold prices fluctuated this week, with a general upward trend influenced by geopolitical factors and tariff policies. However, short-term volatility is expected to remain high [4][10]. - The long-term support for gold prices is attributed to the weakening of the US dollar's credit due to rising national debt [10]. Overseas Market - US stocks showed slight gains, with the 10-year US Treasury yield declining. The market remains sensitive to tariff policies and economic data, particularly employment figures [5][11]. - The uncertainty surrounding US government policies and the potential for a shift away from dollar dominance are key considerations for overseas asset allocation [11]. Industry Performance - In the A-share market, the communication, non-ferrous metals, and electronics sectors performed notably well, with weekly gains of +5.27%, +3.74%, and +3.60% respectively [22][24]. - The overall trading activity in the stock market saw an increase in the proportion of trading volume for small-cap indices compared to large-cap indices, indicating a shift in investor preference [15][19]. Key Events - The recent phone call between Chinese President Xi Jinping and US President Donald Trump has raised investor interest in the potential implications for trade relations and market sentiment [27]. - The release of China's PMI data for May indicated a slight improvement in manufacturing and services, which may influence market expectations moving forward [28]. Quantitative Data - The total trading volume in the two markets reached 11,842 billion yuan this week, a 10.81% increase from the previous week. The trading volume for the CSI 1000 index also saw a significant rise [15][38]. - The volatility of major indices, including the CSI 300, has decreased compared to the previous week, suggesting a more stable market environment [19].