“狼”真的会来？“新美联储通讯社”：美国经济真走向“艰难的夏天”

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the precarious state of the U.S. economy, highlighting the impact of fluctuating trade policies and the potential risks that could lead to a recession, despite recent employment growth and stable unemployment rates [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - In May, the U.S. added 139,000 jobs, with the unemployment rate remaining stable between 4% and 4.2% over the past year [1]. - Consumer debt delinquency rates have been rising for a year, raising concerns about the financial health of low-income borrowers and potential impacts on consumer spending [5]. Group 2: Major Risks - The article identifies three significant risks that could lead to severe consequences for the economy: 1. The fragile balance in the labor market, where companies are hesitant to lay off employees but are also not hiring, which could lead to a sudden spike in unemployment if demand weakens [4][5]. 2. A potential decline in consumer spending due to rising costs, with predictions of a 1% drop in housing prices this year as sellers outnumber buyers by nearly 500,000 [5]. 3. Financial market shocks or sudden shifts in sentiment, with rising long-term borrowing costs potentially affecting stock market performance and corporate profitability [6][7]. Group 3: Corporate Strategies - Companies are adopting various strategies to navigate the uncertain environment, with some choosing to wait and others adjusting supply chains. For instance, some firms are delaying price increases until trade policies stabilize [8]. - The overall sentiment among economists is that the likelihood of a recession has increased compared to earlier in the year, but remains lower than in April and early May [9].