在市场窄幅波动中保持适度谨慎

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes maintaining a cautious stance in a market characterized by narrow fluctuations, with a focus on the current economic conditions and market trends [1]. Weekly Recommendations - Suggested positions for the main board and small-cap sectors are both at low allocations, indicating a conservative approach [2]. Market Performance Summary - In the first week of June, the market saw a rebound with the CSI 300 index rising by 0.88%, while the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.13%, and the CSI 500 index increased by 1.60%. Despite the macroeconomic challenges following April's tariff impacts, market trading activity has improved [3]. Fundamental Analysis - The U.S. unemployment rate has stabilized, and Trump is expected to nominate a new Federal Reserve Chair. In China, the central bank is set to disclose monthly reverse repurchase amounts, with June's scale rising to 1 trillion, which is seen as a rolling support for economic stability. The market is closely monitoring production and consumption data following May's export surge [4]. - Recent U.S. employment data shows a flat unemployment rate and a decline in labor participation, indicating a cooling job market. The upcoming nomination of a new Federal Reserve Chair may influence market expectations, particularly regarding potential interest rate cuts. However, a significant economic recession is anticipated before any major rate cuts occur, as the dollar's credibility could be at risk [4]. Technical Analysis - The market continues to exhibit a narrow oscillation pattern without a clear new trend direction. Institutional funds have flowed into both the main board and small-cap sectors, but these movements have not yet confirmed a new trend [4]. Summary of Market Outlook - The market experienced a slight rebound amid expectations of a U.S.-China summit, with increased trading activity. However, the Chinese economy is still grappling with insufficient domestic demand and fluctuating external demand, while the U.S. faces fiscal challenges amid significant external shocks. The global economic landscape remains fragile, and any changes in expectations regarding major legislative actions or trade tensions could trigger a new round of equity adjustments [5]. - The main board's timing perspective suggests maintaining a low allocation until new signals emerge, while the small-cap sector also remains at a low allocation due to a lack of reversal signals, with a preference for the main board [5]. Short-term momentum models recommend focusing on the banking and telecommunications sectors [5].