每周思考总第649期 | 标的 | 仓位 | | --- | --- | | 主板 | 低仓位 | | 中小市值板块 | 低仓位 | | 风格判断 | 大盘占优 | 观点简述： 节前最后两个交易日+节后2个交易日，沪深300指数区间涨幅1.47%，上证综指周涨幅1.80%，中 证500指数周涨幅2.17%。市场在过去2周依旧被散户情绪带动冲高，但最终难免再度遭遇新一轮全球 黑天鹅事件。 基本面上，中方主动反击美方继续加码贸易冲突。 过去2周，中国双节而美国政府停摆，常规发 布的经济数据较少，本期直接讨论中美贸易战3.0，起因是在美国"名和暗打"的众多对中贸易摩擦操 作下的中国出口连月走弱及最终10月9日高调反制，包括芯片、稀土等领域，但 真正的推波助澜形成 黑天鹅级别的导火索则是美10月10日上午10:57分的特朗普宣布对中国进一步加征关税事件 ，全球股 市包括A50出现了一致性暴跌，并延伸至了美股盘后交易时段的进一步下跌，虚拟币市场出现史上最 大单日爆仓，部分币种净值一度"清零"，大部分币种单日最大跌幅在30-50%，上周五完全可以被界定 为黑色星期五+黑天鹅事件日。现有众多市场观点对比本次与今年4月7日的 ...

上海睿成私募基金 丁鲁明：对本轮全球大类资产定价逻辑的几点思考 原创 阅读全文 ...

Core Viewpoint - The market continues to show signs of divergence, with the broad indices rising while many individual stocks are experiencing consecutive declines. The current market structure is more fragmented than usual, making it difficult for traditional investment strategies to achieve stable positive returns [3]. Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.21% and the CSI 300 Index increased by 1.07% last week, while the CSI 500 Index saw a 0.98% rise. However, a significant number of stocks in the market have shown two consecutive weekly declines [3]. - The LPR (Loan Prime Rate) remained unchanged in September, indicating limited room for interest rate cuts in the near term, which may not be favorable for the market's high expectations [3]. - Domestic commodity prices have been performing better than overseas prices since August, largely due to the implementation of the "anti-involution" policy [3]. Investment Strategy - The recommendation is to reduce positions to low levels and focus on avoiding the market, particularly in the small-cap sector, as the market style shifts towards large-cap stocks [2][3]. - The technology sector, which has been active recently, may face macroeconomic headwinds due to the stable LPR and stronger domestic industrial prices compared to overseas [3]. - The financial sector, a key representative of large-cap industries, has already entered a phase of continuous adjustment, raising concerns about when the technology growth sector will no longer support the indices [3]. Technical Analysis - There are indications that the market's upward movement is being driven by retail investors, as institutional funds appear to be distributing shares to them, a common characteristic of market tops [4]. - The short-term momentum model suggests focusing on the basic chemical industry as a potential area of interest [4].

Group 1 - The market experienced a decline last week, with the CSI 300 index down by 0.44%, the Shanghai Composite Index down by 1.30%, and the CSI 500 index up by 0.32% [3] - Economic data for August was below market expectations, with weak production, consumption, and new housing sales data [3] - The recent economic performance in China has been significantly impacted by declining exports, with real estate sales in first-tier cities continuing to decline [3][4] Group 2 - The technical market features indicate a significant shift in capital allocation, with the financial sector becoming a major variable in the index decline, while the technology sector has absorbed funds from the financial sector [4] - The recommendation for the main board is to reduce positions to a low level and focus on avoiding risks, as the market is expected to revert to mean levels [4] - The small-cap sector showed stronger performance than the main board but is likely supported by speculative funds, suggesting a reduction in positions to a low level [4][5]

Core Viewpoint - The market is showing its first bearish signal in half a year, with a recommendation to reduce positions in the main board and small-cap sectors to low levels, indicating a potential shift in market dynamics [5]. Market Performance - Last week, the market recorded gains, with the CSI 300 index up 1.38%, the Shanghai Composite Index up 1.52%, and the CSI 500 index up 3.38%. Speculative funds became active again, pushing various sector indices to their highs before August [3]. Economic Indicators - The domestic economy is showing signs of weakening while inflation is rising. Recent import and export data showed significant weakness, which has hindered the enthusiasm of some institutional investors. Financial data released last Friday appeared stable but is actually weakening, with expectations of a slowdown in year-on-year growth in the coming months. Meanwhile, CPI and PPI data have shown a rebound, indicating a temporary stagflation cycle in the Chinese economy [3][4]. Technical Analysis - There is a deepening divergence in the funding landscape. While the market has been driven by funds since June, institutional funds have shown a more decisive reduction in positions, while speculative funds are attempting a final upward push. The strength of technical signals has weakened [4]. Sector Positioning - The main board's market-driving forces are becoming increasingly differentiated, shifting from fundamentals to funds, and then to speculative funds. This indicates that market volatility is likely to increase further. The recommendation is to reduce positions in the main board to low levels, marking the first sell signal in half a year. The small-cap sector also showed slight advantages due to speculative activity, but overall differentiation has increased, suggesting a balanced style for the time being [5]. Short-term Focus - The short-term momentum model suggests focusing on the communication industry [5].

Group 1 - The market experienced a significant decline last week, with the CSI 300 index down by 0.81%, the Shanghai Composite Index down by 1.18%, and the CSI 500 index down by 1.85% [3] - The U.S. non-farm payroll data continues to indicate a weakening economy, reinforcing the expectation of a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve [3][4] - Domestic economic data is expected to be released next week, including export and money supply figures, which may impact short-term market trends [3][4] Group 2 - The small-cap sector has underperformed compared to the large-cap sector, aligning with the previous indication of a "large-cap dominance" in market style [4][5] - The recommendation is to moderately reduce positions in both the main board and small-cap sectors in response to the current market conditions [4][5] - The automotive industry is highlighted as a sector to watch based on short-term momentum models [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the main board's upward trend will continue, but there is a need to enhance the actual sense of gain for investors [1][4] - The market showed strong performance last week, with the CSI 300 index rising by 2.71%, the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.84%, and the CSI 500 index by 3.24% [3] - Economic data remains stable, with the official manufacturing PMI for August indicating a relatively low level of economic activity, suggesting that the recent market heat is not closely tied to domestic fundamentals [3][4] Group 2 - The main board and small-cap sectors are both recommended to maintain high positions, with the main board showing superior performance [2][4] - The strategy has successfully identified top-performing sectors in August, achieving an 18% increase, with notable selections in communication, electronics, and non-ferrous metals [4] - The core strategy has ranked in the top 8% of the equity market simulation, demonstrating strong performance in the current market environment [8]

Group 1 - The market experienced significant gains last week, with the CSI 300 index rising by 4.18%, the Shanghai Composite Index by 3.49%, and the CSI 500 index by 3.87% [3] - The sectors that performed best included telecommunications, which ranked first, and computers, which ranked third, along with the automotive industry, which ranked fifth, indicating strong performance outside the TMT sector [3] - The industry model signals indicated an excess return of 4.34% for the week, confirming the accuracy of the previous week's predictions regarding the main board and small-cap stocks [3][5] Group 2 - Major fundamental events included the Federal Reserve's adjustment of its inflation target and Trump's mediation in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which are expected to have positive implications for the Chinese stock market [4] - The Federal Reserve's shift towards a short-term inflation target suggests a potential for rapid interest rate cuts, which may not significantly support the U.S. economy or stock market but could lead to increased foreign capital allocation to China [4] - The active participation of retail and institutional investors in the market indicates a strong short-term bullish sentiment, with institutional fund flow indicators turning upward [5][6] Group 3 - The recommendation for the main board is to maintain a high position, as short-term capital inflows and the ongoing U.S.-China dynamics are expected to bolster A-shares [6] - For small-cap stocks, while maintaining a high position is advised, there has been a noted weakening in overall style, with large-cap stocks currently outperforming [6] - The short-term momentum model suggests focusing on the media industry as a potential area of interest [6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the A-share market, driven by speculative funds, has shown a strong independent upward trend, with the short-term trend returning to an upward direction [3][4]. - The Shanghai Composite Index and the CSI 300 Index experienced weekly gains of 1.70% and 2.37% respectively, while the CSI 500 Index surged by 3.88% [3]. - Economic data released in July shows a significant cooling trend, with most indicators such as industrial production, real estate sales, and retail consumption showing year-on-year declines [3][4]. Group 2 - The technical analysis highlights that speculative funds have played a crucial role in the market's recovery, with A-shares demonstrating independent pricing power despite weak fundamental data [4][5]. - The market's recent performance suggests a shift from a fundamental-driven market to one dominated by liquidity, with a recommendation for high positions in the main board and small-cap sectors [5]. - The short-term momentum model suggests focusing on industries such as automotive, telecommunications, and computing, while the overall style has shifted to favor large-cap stocks [5].

Group 1 - The market experienced a rebound last week, with the CSI 300 index rising by 1.23%, the Shanghai Composite Index by 2.11%, and the CSI 500 index by 1.78%. This rebound was driven by a strong influx of retail investors, leading to significant volatility and some indices reaching new highs, although the market structure is becoming increasingly unstable [3][5]. - In terms of fundamentals, China's export data for July showed a decline despite exceeding market expectations. The rebound in exports to the US observed in June did not continue into July, which fell back to May levels. The only bright spot in July's exports was in non-traditional markets in Africa and Latin America. This indicates a weakening trend in China's exports, which may be further impacted by the ongoing US-China trade tensions [4][5]. - The technical analysis indicates a divergence in funding preferences, suggesting potential short-term volatility in the market. The recent market push was primarily fueled by retail investors, while institutional investors have been withdrawing, leading to a dangerous state of funding divergence. This situation may result in larger market fluctuations in the short term [5][6]. Group 2 - The timing strategy for the main board suggests maintaining a medium position due to the cautious attitude of institutional investors and the alignment with the fundamental data from July and August. The short-term upward trend in the market may soon face significant volatility, hence a recommendation to moderately reduce positions [5][6]. - For the small and mid-cap sector, the technical scoring remains stronger than that of the main board, but the continued creation of new highs slightly exceeded expectations. The market is currently in a self-fulfilling funding mode, where the absence of incremental funds could halt the rally. A recommendation is made to follow the main board's lead and reduce positions to a medium level, maintaining a balanced style [6].