每周思考总第666期 观点简述： 上周全球资产价格延续巨震但A股跌幅相对温和，沪深300指数周涨幅-1.33%，上证综指周涨 幅-1.27%，中证500指数周涨幅-2.68%。 上周标题提示的"美元流动性大退潮开启"如期转化为美元资 产的周一-周四大跌，包括虚拟货币、大宗商品、金银、美股、等美元定价资产等 ，但国内A股体现 出略超预期的抗跌性。 基本面上，美国经济数据分歧再扩大。 上周国内经济数据更新有限，美国方面则有消费、就 业、PMI等多维度数据更新，其中1月ISM制造业PMI大幅飙升至52.6极为异常，具体分项显示新订单 为主要拉动因素，推测是否与美欧关系紧张导致的抢出口2.0或美国对委内瑞拉重油加工订单有关， 但以上均为推测，但同样上周披露的12月岗位空缺继续快速下降，叠加仍在历史最低位置徘徊的居民 消费信心指数与处在异常高位的美国消费零售同比增速，无不凸显出美国经济数据的割裂与分歧，难 以系统准确追踪；资产价格方面，上周全球美元资产如期巨震，虚拟货币、白银、科技股等板块跌幅 居前，主因我们上周提示的全球资本对新任命的美联储未来主席凯文沃什的政策预期，对全球大类资 产我们维持上周中期判断不变。 技术面 ...

1 本周观点 | 标的 | 仓位 | | --- | --- | | 主板 | 中仓位 | | 中小市值板块 | 低仓位 | | 风格判断 | 主板占优 | 观点简述： 上周全球资产价格尤其是商品与虚拟货币巨震，沪深300指数周涨幅0.08%，上证综指周涨 幅-0.44%，中证500指数周涨幅-2.56%。国家队集中减持仍在持续但逐步减弱，美国总统特朗普关于 美元的TACO叠加下一任美联储主席人选落定导致周五全球商品市场大幅波动。 基本面上，新美联储主席人选引发美元货币政策路线预期大修正。 国内方面，最新官方1月PMI 季节性回落， 近期虽有地产松绑的市场言论但从1月成交数据反馈则是二次回落，国内经济仍处于低 位徘徊状态未变，高位的仅有物价，这也主要受过去几个月美元贬值全球大宗涨价因素所致 ；海外 方面，美联储1月议息会议不降息符合市场预期，但周五美国总统特朗普提名下一届美联储主席凯文 沃什引发全球商品价格大幅波动，与现任美联储鲍威尔的非科班出生不同，沃什的专业及相关履历都 更为正统，根据其过去表态等， 我们初步预判后续美联储将在两个方面出现明显转变，1对美国政府 的支持将大幅下降，具体表现为缩表和美国发债速 ...

Group 1 - The market showed a divergence last week, with the CSI 300 index declining by 0.62%, while the Shanghai Composite Index increased by 0.83%, and the CSI 500 index surged by 4.34% [2] - The domestic economy is experiencing limited rebound, with industrial production showing seasonal recovery, but retail sales and real estate sales remaining at relatively low levels [2] - International gold prices increased by 8.31% last week, indicating a continued preference for safe-haven assets amid global uncertainties [2] Group 2 - Despite the reduction in holdings by the national team, market enthusiasm remains high, with retail investors continuing to enter the market [3] - The national team has reduced its holdings significantly, with a third of its positions in the CSI 300 ETF being cut in the past two weeks, leading to increased investment in the CSI 500 index [3] - The recommendation is to maintain a high position in small and mid-cap stocks, benefiting from both incremental capital and the reallocation of funds due to the national team's reduction [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes a strategic approach to market timing, suggesting that after a period of precise cooling, there will be an opportunity to increase positions in the market [1][3]. - The market experienced a mixed performance with the Shanghai Composite Index and CSI 300 Index showing slight declines of -0.45% and -0.57% respectively, while the CSI 500 Index increased by 2.18% [3]. - Recent economic data indicates a rebound trend, particularly in December's export figures, which showed signs of recovery in exports to Europe and the U.S., although domestic fiscal policy has not yet shown significant stimulus effects [3]. Group 2 - The technical analysis indicates that there has been a significant inflow of incremental capital, which led to a regulatory response aimed at cooling the market, particularly through the introduction of policies to reduce financing leverage [4]. - The main board is recommended to maintain a high position due to the positive signals from the fundamental trends and the capital market, despite regulatory challenges [4]. - The small and medium-sized market capitalization sector is highlighted for its high elasticity in response to capital factors, with a recommendation to maintain a high position and a favorable outlook for this segment [4]. Group 3 - The core strategy of the Shanghai Ruicheng fund has shown strong performance, with a total return of 33.90% for 2025, outperforming the CSI 300 benchmark by 16.24%, ranking it first among comparable public funds [6][8]. - The strategy's alpha continues to demonstrate aggressive performance into 2026, with expectations that recent regulatory measures will enhance its alpha advantage further [10]. - The composite strategy employed by Shanghai Ruicheng combines core strategies with timing hedges, which has proven effective in maintaining net value stability during significant market downturns [12].

Group 1 - The market experienced a comprehensive rise in the first week of the new year, with the CSI 300 index increasing by 2.79%, the Shanghai Composite Index by 3.82%, and the CSI 500 index by 7.92% [2] - The A-share market restarted a bullish trend after three months of consolidation, with significant capital inflow observed on January 5, marking a key resistance level breakthrough [4] - The fundamental economic indicators show a continued rebound in domestic prices, aligning with previous predictions of a mid-term price rebound trend that has now lasted for four months [3] Group 2 - The macroeconomic environment remains challenging, with the U.S. unemployment rate slightly decreasing to 4.4%, but the overall economic growth is not sustainable, indicating a potential shift towards a classic Kondratiev wave depression scenario [3] - The market's technical characteristics during the recent consolidation period have shown significant differences from the past decade, leading to higher frequency adjustments in positions [4] - The investment strategy suggests maintaining a high position in small and mid-cap stocks, as the market sentiment has shifted favorably since January 5, indicating a preference for this market segment [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the increasing turmoil in the global trade system, emphasizing the need for careful observation of economic indicators and geopolitical developments [1] - The A-share market is experiencing a low position in both the main board and small and medium-sized market segments, with a preference for the main board [3] - The recent economic data shows a rebound in China's manufacturing PMI, but further confirmation of economic recovery is needed due to international instability and moderate domestic monetary policy [4] Group 2 - The technical analysis indicates a noticeable slowdown in incremental capital, with net inflows into A500 ETF dropping below late December levels, suggesting a potential technical adjustment in January [5] - The main board's timing perspective suggests that while there are short-term benefits from the PMI, more variables are needed for confirmation, and the recent appreciation of the RMB is attributed to excessive money printing in the US rather than a recovery in the Chinese economy [5] - The small and medium-sized market segment is expected to face greater performance pressure than positive forecasts, recommending a low position strategy similar to the main board [5]

Group 1 - The market showed a strong performance last week, with the CSI 300 index increasing by 1.95%, the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.88%, and the CSI 500 index gaining 4.03% [3] - The surge in the market was primarily driven by an influx of funds into the A500 ETF, despite the absence of expectations for interest rate cuts or reserve requirement ratio reductions [3] - Industrial profit growth has weakened, and there has been an unusual rise in metal prices, indicating potential pressure on A-share earnings in the fourth quarter [3] Group 2 - The technical analysis indicates that while the Shanghai Composite Index has seen eight consecutive days of gains, institutional investors have shown restraint in their buying activity [4] - The increase in market performance was largely attributed to public fund inflows into the A500 ETF, but there are signs of a slowdown in this inflow, suggesting potential challenges for sustained market growth [4] - The recommendation for the main board is to maintain a low position and exercise caution regarding chasing after market gains, while the small and medium-sized market segment is also advised to keep a low position due to traditional January risk windows [4]

Group 1 - The market continues to experience a sideways adjustment, with the CSI 300 index down 0.28%, the Shanghai Composite index up 0.03%, and the CSI 500 index unchanged for the week, indicating an ongoing mid-term adjustment trend [3] - Both domestic and U.S. economic data have shown signs of weakness, with China's production, consumption, and real estate sales data in November continuing the previous adjustment trend, reflecting a lack of clear upward momentum since March [3] - The U.S. unemployment rate rose to 4.6% in November, suggesting the economy is "very close" to recession, while retail data and inflation indicators also declined, indicating a need for cautious adjustments to earnings expectations for U.S. stocks [3] Group 2 - The main board is recommended to maintain a low position due to structural differences in external and internal demand, despite a record trade surplus this year [4] - The small and mid-cap sector has shown volatility, but the overall mid-term trend remains cautious, suggesting a continued low position similar to the main board [4] - No specific industries are recommended for short-term momentum focus [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights concerns over the Federal Reserve's recent decision to initiate high-interest balance sheet expansion, which may lead to significant volatility in global asset classes [4] - The domestic market is experiencing a narrow fluctuation, with the Shanghai Composite Index and CSI 300 showing slight declines, while the CSI 500 index has a modest increase, indicating ongoing market risks [3] - The Federal Reserve's unexpected move to expand its balance sheet shortly after ending its previous contraction raises questions about the underlying economic conditions in the U.S., particularly in light of recent fiscal stimulus measures [4] Group 2 - The article notes that domestic incremental capital has not sustained momentum, with institutional and speculative funds remaining cautious, contributing to a continued mid-term consolidation trend in the market [5] - The recommendation for the A-share market is to maintain a low position due to the interplay of domestic and international factors, with a focus on avoiding volatility [5] - The article suggests that the small and medium-sized market segments are more sensitive to liquidity conditions, advising a similar low position strategy as the main board [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the need to closely observe the sustainability of incremental capital in the market, highlighting a cautious stance on investment due to mixed signals from both domestic and international economic conditions [3][4]. Market Performance - Last week, the market continued its technical rebound with the CSI 300 index rising by 1.28%, the Shanghai Composite Index increasing by 0.37%, and the CSI 500 index up by 0.94% [3]. - Most stocks experienced a four-day adjustment before a mid-day surge on Friday, driven by policy benefits in the non-bank sector [3]. Economic Conditions - In the U.S., economic structural divergence persists, with consumer confidence data hitting a 70-year low [3]. - Domestic expectations for loosening regulations in the securities and insurance asset management sectors rose last Friday, but there are no significant signs of liquidity improvement from the economic fundamentals and bond market performance [3][4]. - The article notes the ongoing geopolitical tensions, including the EU's proposal to ban Russian natural gas, which reflects the enduring global influence of the U.S. since World War II [3]. Technical Analysis - Incremental capital has shown signs of breaking through, but its sustainability remains uncertain. Despite a second week of rebound in A-shares, the inflow of incremental capital is still insufficient compared to the outflow levels seen in November [4]. - The main board's timing perspective remains cautious, with a low position maintained while closely monitoring the movements of incremental capital [4]. - The small and mid-cap sector has shown weak performance, with a low position also maintained, favoring the main board style [4]. Sector Focus - Short-term momentum models suggest focusing on industries such as automotive and home appliances [4].