锂电新周期｜全球产业格局的变迁

Core Viewpoint - The global lithium battery landscape is entering a new cycle, driven by the increasing penetration of electric vehicles (EVs) in China and the sustained demand for energy storage, with a projected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 57% for global power battery installations from 2020 to 2024 [3][4]. Demand Growth - The demand for lithium batteries globally is expected to reach 1339 GWh by 2024, with energy storage accounting for 235 GWh (18% of total demand). The energy storage demand is projected to grow to 305 GWh in 2025, driven by rising electricity prices, decreasing costs of storage systems, and increased renewable energy penetration [3][4]. Supply and Capacity Utilization - The oversupply situation in the lithium battery industry is expected to improve by 2025, with new capacity growth slowing to 29% and 10% in 2025-2026, compared to 68% and 52% in 2023-2024. This will lead to a recovery in capacity utilization rates to 46% by 2026 [4][5]. Global Market Dynamics - The previous cycle (2022-2024) saw significant changes in the global lithium battery landscape, primarily due to the U.S. Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) attracting Japanese and Korean battery companies to expand capacity in North America, while domestic second-tier lithium battery companies in China expanded capacity significantly, leading to temporary oversupply and declining profits [4][5]. Investment Opportunities - Companies that can expand their capacity outside the U.S. and are close to end customers are expected to achieve excess profits, especially as trade tensions rise and domestic oversupply persists. The focus on European markets is seen as a strategic move for Chinese lithium battery companies to mitigate risks and enhance profitability [5][6]. European Market Outlook - The European market is anticipated to recover in 2025, with a projected increase in lithium battery capacity utilization from 62% in 2024 to 69% in 2025. The demand for both power and energy storage batteries is expected to drive this recovery [11][12]. Competitive Landscape - Chinese lithium battery companies are expected to gain a competitive edge in Europe, with planned capacity reaching 362 GWh compared to 213 GWh for Korean companies and 300 GWh for local European firms. The broad coverage of the supply chain and superior manufacturing capabilities position Chinese firms favorably [12][13]. Client Relationships - Chinese lithium battery companies have established partnerships with 23 international automotive manufacturers, significantly higher than the 18 partnerships of Korean companies and 4 of European firms, indicating a strong supply capability and responsiveness to market demands [13][15].