【广发宏观团队】工程师红利与研发收获期

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the acceleration of the "engineer dividend" in China's economy, particularly in the pharmaceutical industry, highlighting the importance of talent, investment, and research and development (R&D) as key factors driving growth. Talent - The proportion of medical graduates from ordinary higher education institutions has shown a consistent upward trend since 2004, reaching 10.4% in 2021, up from 6.2% in 2003, indicating a significant increase in talent supply in the medical field [2] - The proportion of doctoral graduates in medical fields has also increased, reaching 18% in 2022, up from 11% in 2009, reflecting a growing emphasis on advanced medical education [2] Investment - Fixed asset investment growth in the pharmaceutical industry significantly accelerated from 2009 to 2016, with an average annual growth rate of 145% compared to the overall industry growth rate during that period [2] - The overall technical investment ratio also saw a central upward trend during this time, indicating increased capital allocation towards technology in the pharmaceutical sector [2] Research - The Nature Index, which measures the influence of research institutions in natural sciences, shows that China's biological sciences field's index rose from approximately 17.5% of the U.S. in 2019 to 37.8% in 2023, indicating a rapid increase in research output [2] - This growth in research output is a key indicator of the increasing R&D capabilities within China's pharmaceutical industry [2] Corporate R&D - The number of PCT (Patent Cooperation Treaty) patent applications in the pharmaceutical, biotechnology, and medical technology sectors has increased significantly, with China reaching 30% of the U.S. level by 2019 and projected to reach 48% by 2024 [3] - The R&D investment index for leading pharmaceutical companies has shown a marked increase since 2019, indicating a faster pace of R&D investment among top firms [3] - Pharmaceutical companies listed on the stock market have seen their R&D revenue as a percentage of total revenue enter double digits in 2023, surpassing the overall A-share market [3] R&D Harvest Period - The concept of "R&D harvest period" is highlighted as a critical lens for observing the current stage of China's economy and technology-intensive industries, emphasizing the importance of prior R&D efforts in driving future growth [4]