【广发宏观陈嘉荔】5月非农就业数据支持美联储观望姿态

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the U.S. job market shows short-term resilience, with May non-farm payrolls increasing by 139,000, surpassing expectations of 126,000 [1][6][7] - The healthcare sector (+78,000) and leisure and hospitality (+48,000) accounted for 90% of the total job gains, indicating that service consumption is a key support for the U.S. job market [1][7] - The manufacturing, retail trade, and government employment sectors were drag factors in May, with federal government employment turning negative, possibly reflecting the impact of layoffs [1][8] Group 2 - The unemployment rate remained stable at 4.2%, with a slight increase in the unemployment rate (U3) from 4.19% to 4.24% [2][9] - Average hourly earnings increased by 3.9% year-on-year, exceeding the expected 3.7%, indicating wage stickiness that may support consumer spending [2][10] - The Index of Aggregate Payrolls Private showed a year-on-year increase of 5% in May, although it was lower than the previous value of 5.3% [2][10] Group 3 - The employment diffusion index decreased from 56 to 54.2, indicating a slowdown in job growth breadth, with the manufacturing employment diffusion index dropping to 41.7, the lowest since August 2024 [3][11] - The proportion of full-time employment fell to 49.3%, and the total employment-to-population ratio dropped to 59.7%, the lowest since the pandemic [3][11] - The number of individuals transitioning from employment to non-labor force status rose to 5.41 million, the highest monthly increase, potentially due to federal administrative leave and tightened immigration policies [3][12] Group 4 - The labor force participation rate decreased to 62.4%, below the expected 62.6% [3][12] - The labor force participation rate for foreign-born individuals fell from 66.5% to 65.9%, likely related to the U.S. government's termination of Temporary Protection Status for Venezuelan nationals [4][14] - The Supreme Court's decision to end TPS could impact approximately 348,000 individuals, potentially reducing the labor supply by about 20,000 jobs per month over the next year [4][15] Group 5 - Overall, the May employment data supports the Federal Reserve's cautious stance on interest rate cuts, with a low probability of rate cuts in June and July [5][17] - The market's limited expectations for rate cuts were reflected in the rise of major U.S. stock indices following the employment data release [5][17] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rebounded by 11 basis points to 4.50% on the same day [5][17]