【策略】内外因素交织，市场或维持整固状态——策略周专题（2025年6月第1期）（张宇生/王国兴）

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has shown signs of recovery due to increased risk appetite, with the ChiNext index leading the gains at 2.3% while the Shanghai 50 index saw the smallest increase of 0.4% [3] Market Performance - The overall A-share market experienced a divergence this week, with major indices generally rising. The valuation of the entire A-share market is currently at a medium level historically since 2010 [3] - The communication, non-ferrous metals, and electronics sectors performed relatively well, with respective increases of 5.3%, 3.7%, and 3.6%. In contrast, the household appliances, food and beverage, and transportation sectors saw declines of 1.8%, 1.1%, and 0.5% [3] Domestic and External Factors - Recent domestic events include the launch of the "Service Consumption Season" by the Ministry of Commerce and the deployment of policies for the 2025 New Energy Vehicles initiative. Externally, significant events include a phone call between Chinese President Xi Jinping and U.S. President Trump, and the SEC tightening regulations on foreign companies listed in the U.S. [4] - The domestic economy remains stable, supported by growth policies, which are expected to provide a cushion for the market. Despite potential market fluctuations, supportive funds are likely to flow into the stock market to stabilize it [4] Market Outlook - The market is expected to maintain a consolidation phase, with external risks potentially limiting further upward movement. The current level of the Shanghai index is near the points seen in early April, making upward breakthroughs challenging [5] - Short-term external risks may have peaked, but vigilance regarding Trump's policy changes is necessary. Domestic policies are expected to continue to be implemented, with consumption remaining a key driver of economic recovery [5] Investment Focus - Attention should be given to three main lines of investment: 1. Domestic consumption, with a focus on home goods, food processing, professional services, and leisure foods, as policies to expand domestic demand are expected to catalyze growth [6] 2. Domestic substitution, focusing on industries with high import ratios from the U.S. and strong domestic supply capabilities, such as publishing and building materials, as well as sectors like aerospace equipment and medical devices that are expected to improve domestic supply [6] Fund Allocation - The "Action Plan for Promoting High-Quality Development of Public Funds" may have a profound impact on fund allocation, with sectors currently underweight by funds, such as banking, non-bank financials, public utilities, and transportation, being worth attention in the medium to long term [7]