【光大研究每日速递】20250608

Group 1: Macro Insights - The U.S. non-farm payroll data for May exceeded market expectations, with the unemployment rate stable at 4.2%, indicating a robust job market [3] - The leisure and hospitality sector saw an increase of 48,000 jobs, up from 29,000 in the previous month, contributing significantly to the stability of the employment data [3] - The steady non-farm data reinforces the Federal Reserve's wait-and-see approach, with market expectations suggesting no rate cuts in June and the first potential cut in September [3] Group 2: Fixed Income Market - The convertible bond market continued to recover, with the China Convertible Bond Index recording a 1.1% increase for the week, and a 4.7% rise year-to-date [4] - The performance of the convertible bond market has outpaced the equity market, with the overall index showing a 1.8% change [4] - Key factors influencing the convertible bond market include trade negotiations, fundamentals, and macro policies, with a focus on sectors that boost domestic demand and domestic substitution [4] Group 3: REITs Market - The secondary market prices for publicly listed REITs in China showed an upward trend, with the weighted REITs index closing at 142.42 and a weekly return of 1.74% [5] - The return rates of major asset classes ranked from highest to lowest are: crude oil, convertible bonds, gold, REITs, A-shares, U.S. stocks, and pure bonds [5] - There was a total net inflow of 9.05 million yuan into the market, indicating increased trading enthusiasm [5] Group 4: Liquidity Outlook - In June, credit issuance is expected to increase seasonally, with government bonds maintaining a certain level of issuance intensity [7] - The interbank liquidity is anticipated to remain in a neutral and slightly loose state, with a low probability of tightening at the end of the quarter [7] - Factors such as loan surges, government bond issuance, and the maturity of negotiable certificates of deposit (NCDs) may lead to increased volatility in DR rates compared to May [7]