【银行】6月流动性展望——流动性观察第110期 （王一峰/赵晨阳）

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of recent monetary policy adjustments, including interest rate cuts and liquidity management, on the banking sector and financial markets, indicating a stable liquidity environment despite potential pressures on deposit rates and interbank market dynamics [2][4]. Group 1: Monetary Policy and Liquidity - The probability of further monetary policy easing in the short term is low, with the central bank maintaining a "not too loose, not too tight" stance, as economic conditions show improvement [2][3]. - As of June 5, the central bank's net withdrawal of base currency through open market operations (OMO) reached 515.6 billion, indicating a controlled liquidity environment [2]. - The overall liquidity in the banking system is expected to remain neutral and slightly loose, with no significant tightening anticipated at the end of the month [2]. Group 2: Interest Rates and Market Dynamics - The 7-day OMO rate was reduced by 10 basis points to 1.4%, influencing the pricing of other short-term instruments like the 3-month and 6-month reverse repos and 1-year medium-term lending facility (MLF) [4]. - The interbank market interest rates are expected to experience increased volatility in June, following historical seasonal trends [4]. Group 3: Interbank Certificates of Deposit (CDs) - In May, the overall trend for interbank CD rates was a downward fluctuation, with an average rate of 1.69%, down 9 basis points from April [6]. - The supply of CDs decreased in May, but large banks maintained their issuance strength, while demand from broad-based funds for CD allocations increased [6]. - For June, it is anticipated that CD rates will stabilize with upper and lower limits, despite significant maturity pressures [6]. Group 4: Bank Behavior and Market Impact - The behavior of commercial banks at the end of June will significantly influence liquidity and bond investment, particularly due to seasonal loan and deposit dynamics [7]. - Increased loan issuance is expected as banks respond to end-of-quarter assessments, while deposit growth is anticipated to improve due to various factors [7].