机构研究周报：“转型牛”日益清晰，收益率曲线平坦化或延续

Core Viewpoints - The Chinese stock market is increasingly showing a "transformation bull" pattern, with a strategic outlook favoring 2025 [1][5] - The liquidity in June is expected to remain balanced and abundant, with a flat yield curve anticipated to persist for a longer duration [21] Focused Commentary - The recent phone call between the leaders of China and the U.S. has helped to ease bilateral relations, particularly in trade and technology sectors, which is expected to improve market sentiment [3][4] - Historical data indicates that after such calls, A-shares and Hong Kong stocks typically perform positively, with significant gains observed in Hong Kong stocks within a month following the communication [3] Equity Market Insights - The "transformation bull" market in China is characterized by reduced marginal impacts from valuation contractions and a systematic decrease in risk perception, driven by government policies aimed at stabilizing asset prices and boosting demand [5] - The market sentiment is expected to improve further due to the continuation of U.S.-China dialogue and the focus on other policy matters by the U.S. administration [6] Industry Research - The pharmaceutical sector is anticipated to rebound in 2025, with particular emphasis on innovative drugs and AI healthcare as key investment areas [13] - The demand for electricity coal is expected to strengthen, leading to a potential rebound in coal prices, with major coal companies showing attractive dividend yields and low valuations [14] - Concerns over subsidy reductions may negatively impact the home appliance sector, while the market remains optimistic about structural opportunities in technology and resource sectors [16] Macro and Fixed Income - The yield curve is expected to remain flat, with the central bank potentially resuming government bond purchases in the second half of the year [21] - There is an expectation of further comprehensive interest rate cuts as macroeconomic policies remain supportive [22] - The U.S. job market shows resilience, which may delay interest rate cuts, impacting global economic conditions [23] Asset Allocation - The market is entering a new "volatility" cycle, with a focus on low-volatility dividends, technology autonomy, and sectors like military and pharmaceuticals for hedging [25]