从小黑屋出来了！！——A股一周走势研判及事件提醒

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses various developments in the global and Chinese markets, highlighting tensions between major figures like Elon Musk and Donald Trump, as well as economic indicators and industry trends in China and the U.S. Group 1: U.S.-China Relations and Economic Developments - Trump has declared his relationship with Musk over, warning him against funding the Democratic Party, which could lead to "serious consequences" [1] - The Chinese government has granted temporary export licenses for rare earths to three major U.S. automakers: General Motors, Ford, and Stellantis [3] - China's aviation sector is resuming acceptance of Boeing aircraft, with a new Boeing 737 MAX delivered to China [3] Group 2: Economic Forecasts and Market Dynamics - Morgan Stanley predicts a 4.8% GDP growth for Q2, but nominal GDP growth may fall below 4% due to persistent supply-demand imbalances [4] - A-shares are expected to remain in a volatile state, requiring sustained capital inflow and structural improvements for a breakout [4] - The asset management industry needs to accumulate a profit effect to support new capital inflows into A-shares [4] Group 3: Industry Trends and Events - The tech sector is anticipated to recover, with several key events scheduled, including the launch of Nintendo Switch 2 and various AI conferences [6] - The automotive industry is facing serious overcapacity issues, with Geely's CEO stating that no new production facilities will be built [7] - ASML's CEO mentioned that China is beginning to develop its own lithography equipment [9] Group 4: Market Performance and Fund Flows - A-shares saw a net capital inflow of 42.697 billion yuan, marking the largest weekly net purchase in three months [24] - The electronics sector attracted the most capital, with a net inflow of 18.594 billion yuan, while the automotive sector experienced significant outflows [25] - The overall market sentiment remains cautious, with various sectors showing mixed performance [28] Group 5: Industry Outlook and Economic Indicators - As of June 7, 2025, several industries, including textiles and chemicals, are in a recession phase, while communications and defense are expanding [29] - The pharmaceutical and real estate sectors are expected to see improved conditions in the coming months, while commercial trade and non-ferrous metals may decline [30] - The valuation levels of banking and real estate sectors are considered high, while agriculture and non-bank financials are seen as undervalued [31]