央行连续7个月增持黄金原因，今明两年金价前景如何？｜政策与监管

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the continuous increase in China's gold reserves by the central bank, analyzing the underlying logic, factors influencing gold prices, and the outlook for gold prices in the coming years [1][2]. Group 1: Reasons for Continuous Increase in Gold Reserves - The central bank's continuous increase in gold reserves signals an optimization of reserve structure, as gold reserves account for only 7% of foreign exchange reserves, significantly lower than the global average of 15% [4]. - It supports the internationalization of the Renminbi, as gold enhances the credibility of sovereign currency and underpins the cross-border payment system (CIPS) covering 109 countries [4]. - The move is a strategic response to complex international situations, including fluctuating US-China tariffs and escalating geopolitical risks, prompting the central bank to prepare for safe-haven assets [4]. Group 2: Factors Influencing Gold Price Trends - The purchasing trends of central banks significantly impact gold prices, with global central bank purchases reaching 1,045 tons in 2024, supporting a rising price trend [7]. - The strength of the US dollar affects gold prices inversely; a weaker dollar typically leads to higher gold prices, as seen with the anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in June 2025 [7]. - Geopolitical risks, such as trade tensions and conflicts, drive gold prices up during periods of increased uncertainty [7]. - Inflation and real interest rates also play a crucial role; rising inflation enhances gold's appeal as an anti-inflation asset [7]. - Technical factors, including COMEX gold futures positions and ETF fund flows, influence gold price movements [7]. Group 3: Future Outlook for Gold Prices - Current gold prices are experiencing high-level fluctuations, with resistance at $3,500 per ounce and support between $2,900 and $3,200 per ounce [7]. - Goldman Sachs predicts that gold prices may reach $4,000 per ounce by mid-2026, driven by supply shortages, ongoing central bank purchases, and geopolitical risk premiums [8]. - The trend towards de-dollarization is expected to support higher gold prices, as the global monetary system becomes more diversified, enhancing the roles of gold, the euro, the Renminbi, and emerging market currencies [8].