汽车琰究·2025-06-08 15:11Core Viewpoints - The automotive sector is experiencing a recovery in passenger vehicle sales, with a notable increase in new energy vehicle (NEV) sales and a penetration rate of 53.1% [2][6][41] - The market is advised to focus on companies with strong product cycles and intelligent driving capabilities, including Geely, BYD, and Xpeng [4][12][6] Weekly Data - In the week of May 26 to June 1, 2025, passenger car sales reached 466,000 units, up 18.3% year-on-year and 16.7% month-on-month; NEV sales were 247,000 units, up 30.1% year-on-year and 11.6% month-on-month [2][41] - The overall market size for narrow passenger vehicles in May is estimated at approximately 1.85 million units, with NEV retail expected to reach 980,000 units, resulting in a penetration rate of 52.9% [6][10] Market Performance - The automotive sector underperformed the market, with a slight decline of 0.01% in A-share automotive stocks from June 3 to June 6, 2025, ranking 25th among sub-industries [3][27] - Specific segments such as motorcycles and automotive services saw increases, while passenger vehicles and commercial vehicles experienced declines [3][27] Investment Recommendations - The focus is on high-quality domestic companies that are accelerating breakthroughs in intelligence and globalization, with recommendations including Geely, BYD, Xpeng, and Li Auto [7][12] - For the parts sector, recommendations include companies in the new forces supply chain and intelligent driving, such as Berteli and Horizon Robotics [7][15] Intelligent Driving Trends - The intelligent driving sector is witnessing a dual penetration effect, with affordable options gaining traction in the 150,000 yuan market while high-end models are evolving towards multi-modal integration [5][9] - The launch of new models, such as the Li Auto i8, is expected to enhance the capabilities of intelligent driving systems [5][9] Policy Impact - The continuation of the vehicle replacement subsidy policy is expected to stimulate demand, with subsidies for scrapping older vehicles and purchasing new energy vehicles [11][34] - The expansion of the subsidy scope to include vehicles meeting the National IV emission standards is anticipated to further support market demand [36][39] Motorcycle Market Insights - The motorcycle market is experiencing growth, with sales of 250cc and above motorcycles reaching 93,000 units in April 2025, up 28.0% year-on-year [19][20] - The recommendation is to focus on leading companies in the mid-to-large displacement motorcycle segment, such as Chunfeng Power [20] Heavy Truck Market Dynamics - The heavy truck market is expected to recover due to the expansion of the vehicle replacement subsidy policy, which includes incentives for scrapping older trucks [22][23] - In April 2025, heavy truck sales were 87,700 units, with a year-on-year increase of 6.5% [22][23] Tire Industry Outlook - The tire industry is benefiting from high demand and low valuations, with a focus on leading companies like Sailun Tire and high-growth firms like Senki [24][26] - The industry is also seeing a shift towards smart manufacturing and global expansion, which is expected to enhance competitiveness [24][26]